My results today: Park 1, level 125 poison metal trait with poison fire trait, both level 17 rift at air alignment, 12 breeds flower 6, with 3 non rifts poison 5, 2 non rifts smoulderbrush 1
Park 2, level 125 both poison fire traits, levels 17 and 11 earth alignment, 12 breeds: flower 5, 3 non rifts poison 6, 1 non rift smoulderbrush 1, non Rift
Rift aligned to LightenIng Level 91. Both poison fire trained. Dragon Count ------ ----- Poison 7 - 2 non Flower 2- 1 T / 1 non Smoulderbrush 0 Pepper 0 - 0 T / 0 not
Added everyone's data in with mine from today, and updated OP. Narrowing it down, but until we get a lot more data on Smoulder/Pepper, it will be hard to tell the exact numbers.
Rift aligned to water Level 91. Both poison fire trained. Dragon Count ------ ----- Poison 10 - 7 T / 3 non Flower 1 - 1 T / 0 non Smoulderbrush 0 Pepper 0 - 0 T / 0 non
I've updated again with my breeds from today. While the numbers are a bit different between the air/water and the non air/water results, they're close enough that I'm guessing they'll close the gap as we add more data results. If you combine everything and look at the results, this is what I see (Rough numbers):
30 precent chance of cloning a poison with 2 of the same. 30 percent chance of a normal hybrid flower. 30 percent chance of a normal hybrid poison. 5 percent for a pepper. 4 percent for a smoulderbrush. And finally 1 percent or less for the Kampos/Plume, which didn't actually show. But we only did 140 attempts with the air or water traits.
While I would like to go back to collecting more numbers for Poison + Poison and start looking at Golden hybrid cloning with Peppers, I'd like to switch tracks starting tomorrow and collect some different data. I'm curious what happens when you add additional normal hybrids to the list, and if golden hybrids are roughly 5 percent each then what happens when you add in a larger set golden of hybrids.
If we start testing Mountain + Poison, then we have a possible 9 golden hybrids, plus rainbows and some rift dragons. At 5 percent each, that means the goldens should be nearly half of the results. Except there are 13 normal hybrid results, and I would expect them to be more common, so the 5 percent can't hold up. Does the percent chance lower based on the number of results, or is it fixed?
So starting tomorrow, I'm going to start testing Mountain + Poison. If you want to help, try the mountain and poison combo too and post the same type of results as you were doing. If you're still doing Poison+Poison, that's fine too as more data points will always help.
Mountain earth trait level 10 and Poison fire trait level 10 Park level 91, Rift aligned to air 11 breeds Blue Fire: 2 - 2 T / 0 non Frost Fire: 1 - 1 T / 0 non Lava: 1 - 1 T / 0 non Mountain: 2 - 1 T / 1 non Pepper: 2 - 2 T / 0 non Permafrost: 1 - 0 T / 1 non Smolderbrush: 1 - 1 T / 0 non Tree: 1 - 0 T / 1 non
Total Normal: 24 43.64% Total Golden: 25 45.45% Total: 55 Non Rift: 12 21.82% What I find so interesting with this initial data is that the hybrids and golden hybrids are 45/45 percent, with the opposites at 10 percent. I'm not sure if I should lump the opposites in with normal or not yet, we'll see with more numbers. But as I was guessing, if the hybrids are all 5 percent roughly in chance and there are 9 of them, that's 45 percent. And with very early numbers it's looking just like that.
It also likely means that the hybrids take up their percentage amount, perhaps cloning theirs, and then the leftover is split with the normal hybrids available. We saw with poison + poison that the normal hybrids took the vast majority of the results. But here, they've been cut way back, despite still having nearly half the possible results like they did with poison + poison.
We'll continue to collect Poison + Moutain data for a while, and really fill in these numbers. It would also be interesting to see what happens when all golden hybrids are available someday, and their roughly 5 percent each add up to over 100. This would happen with two rainbows. Does it scale it back? How much do the normal hybrids keep in that case, like is there a minimal amount they always hold? That might be a good test after the mountain / poison in done for a while, so if you pull any rainbows in the rift, hold on to two of them!
I did 11 breeds today, saving the data on my phone, while my grandkids were sleeping. Not enough time to send the info to this board. Somehow that data was delete before getting it sent. The only info I have because I saved the dragons:
Mountain earth trait level 10 and Poison fire trait level 10 Park level 91, Rift aligned to metal Fever: 2 - 1 T / 1 non
I think I remember 2 traited Arctic. Sorry but I can not be certain of the others.
Total Normal: 59 51.30% Total Golden: 46 40.00% Total: 115 Non Rift: 26 22.61 It looks like it's shifting closer to 50 percent normal, 50 percent rares/opposites.
Do you notice that Pepper is the most common rare in our small test so far? I saw someone else mention that Pepper was showing as their most bred in the new egg history screen, and mine is way up there (only behind some I bred like plant and sandstorm for events). I bet it has a higher percent than the others and that's why we're seeing 7 percent above vs the usual 2-5 percents.
What is very surprising is that Pepper and Smoulder did NOT go down in chance when we went from Poison + Poison to Poison + Mountain. They remained the same, or even slightly up (given the small sample, I wouldn't expect it to be the same yet). The key is that if you want a specific rare dragon and there are 4 results (like our first test) or there are 25+ results in this test, either case gives you the same chance to get that rare. So if you want Smoulderbrush, using 2 fire/plants together is just as good as using 2 fire/plant/earth/cold dragons. The chances for a normal hybrid drop drastically when you add more rares into the result set.
Now what happens when you add in 50+ results? Then the numbers can't remain the same, as the rares would add up to over 100 percent if they remain static. So what percentage do the normal hybrids always remain available, and what happens to the rares when there are too many? That's a question we'll need to answer with many, many rainbow breeds. I still don't even have 2 rainbows in the rift on my alts, or even 1 on some of them, so we'll stick with Mountain and Poison for quite a while.
If anyone does have 2 rainbows, feel free to try those too or mix it up and I'll keep collecting all the data. I may run some rainbows on my main when there's no new dragons to breed in the rift. Maybe it's not even terrible to use them to try for the new Ignite dragon, given what we're seeing.
I actually have 2 Rift rainbows in each of the 2 parks that I am using for the tests. I can do a rainbow x rainbow in one, and mountain x poison in the other. Or would you like me to do rainbow for both?
Actually, I'd like to avoid the cloning chances on Rainbow+Rainbow, which will mess with the results with multiple Rainbows. Maybe a Rainbow and Double Rainbow would be better, and significantly lower the rainbow clone chances. That might be harder to find though. Also in the very long run, we'd want to do both so that we can see if the clone chances take away from the normal hybrids or from all results. Whatever data you can capture, I'll record.
Actually, I'd like to avoid the cloning chances on Rainbow+Rainbow, which will mess with the results with multiple Rainbows. Maybe a Rainbow and Double Rainbow would be better, and significantly lower the rainbow clone chances. That might be harder to find though. Also in the very long run, we'd want to do both so that we can see if the clone chances take away from the normal hybrids or from all results. Whatever data you can capture, I'll record.
OK, I think I may have a rainbow and a double rainbow in one of the parks. I will do that, and continue with mountain and poison with the other park. Will submit my data when done.
I ran double rainbow + rainbow in my main park, and my wife ran it in hers today to start to get some numbers. The result set is huge, so I won't post it here directly. I'll likely provide a link so people can see it in a spreadsheet soon. What's really interesting are the totals for rainbow + double rainbow:
Total Normal: 1 4.35% Total Opposites: 3 13.04% Total Rifts: 1 4.35% Total Golden: 16 69.57% Total Epic: 2 8.70% Total: 23 Non Rift: 4 17.39% Sure, it's a very small sampling. But take a look at the normal hybrids! That's a single 1 out of 23 attempts, it's just filled with goldens, epics, and opposite elements. The rare numbers took up most of the percentage result space, there's probably a small cap holding normal hybrids that's left. It could be anything from 90, 95, to even 99 percent. We won't know for a while. But the sandbox numbers are clearly backwards, where it shows the normal hybrids at 1 percent each and the goldens at 0.1 percent. It looks to be the opposite.
The biggest question I want answered is still what I talked about earlier. For example, if Smoulder is 5 percent with 2 poisons, and 5 percent with poison and mountain, what happens to the numbers with 2 rainbows? There are nearly 60 hybrids, so their numbers have to scale back in some form. 60x5 = 300 percent, which can't work without changing it. My guess is that it will scale back by about 1/3, and they all scale the same.
Total Normal: 73 49.66% Total Opposites:10 6.80% Total Golden: 61 41.50% Total Epic: 3 2.04% Total: 147 Non Rift: 29 19.73%
Rainbow / Dbl Rainbow summary: Total Normal: 1 1.54% Total Opposites:9 13.85% Total Rifts: 3 4.62% Total Golden: 46 70.77% Total Epic: 6 9.23% Total: 65 Non Rift: 12 18.46%
I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm kinda shocked that two rainbows don't produce normal hybrids. Just 1 out of 65 attempts, where we received 55 rare hybrids or opposites!
I find it really interesting what you guys are doing here and I would very much like to help. Ehemm this is a bit shameful but I can share my weirdness here. A while back I made a third park, basically to help my main park with gems and also to see how difficult this game has become for new players. Now I use it mostly in events, ever since this game became a dragon cloning game instead of a breeding game. I can help, at least until there is a new dragon I need to try for (already have Ignite). Just let me know if you want me to breed something else, this park is max level and has a lot of rare dragons.
Todays results are quite interesting, think you are on to something about not getting normal hybrids, didn’t get a single one.
Rift Alignment: Lightning Double Rainbow (Dark Trait) Level 10 and Rainbow (Metal Trait) Level 10 Steam 1 Normal Frostbite 2 Traited 1 Normal Snapper 1 T Thorn 1 N Fissure 2 T Blue Fire 1 T Brilliant 1 T Lunar Eclipse 1 T (Don’t remember if it has to be after 7 pm for this dragon, I live in Europe so my reset is at 7 pm) Char 1 N
I hope this helps. Usually only go up to 5000 breeds for this park, but it can afford to do those 5000 also, if that is necessary.
Thanks for those numbers, it's really adding up quickly and giving us a good picture of the breeding odds. I ran a bunch of rainbow/dbl rainbows again today and came up with 1 more normal hybrid. That's only 2 out of 128 breeds, putting the odds at 1-2 percent for normal hybrid so far. Given that there are around 80 normal hybrids, that's a 0.02 percent chance of getting a specific normal hybrid. Getting a Poison dragon from Rainbow+Rainbow is rarer than trying to get even a Chromacorn with the right breeding combo!
Total Normal: 2 1.56% Total Opposites: 18 14.06% Total Rifts: 5 3.91% Total Golden: 83 64.84% Total Epic: 20 15.63% Total: 128 Non Rift: 29 22.66%
I will start sharing the details of the spreadsheet soon, but it really needs more numbers to make sense at a specific dragon level. I did run some queries against it, looking at the more common golden hybrids and opposites and guessing that they should be around 5 percent normally when breeding their correct elements, as we saw with poison and mountain. I took the sum of how many we've gotten with how many we'd expect to get, and the percentage dropped from 5 to 1 on any specific dragon. Given that the results are nearly 5x as many as would add to 100 percent, it really looks like things just scale down based on the result size. So while I can't look at specific dragons yet, we can look at trends of types and expected vs results.
If that's the case, lets consider the new Ignite dragon (lightning + fire). If it has a 5 percent chance with a fire+lightning, it still has a 5 percent chance with scorch+scorch. And then again, it still has a 5 percent chance with scorch+mud, as the result sets of the golden hybrids are still small enough and well under 100 percent. But two epics with multiple elements, like rainbows? The results drop to 1 percent or so, making it significantly harder to breed. Most of this is common sense, limit the result sets and you'll have a better chance, but it's not exactly that. For example, if you needed both a silverline and an ignite, you may as well run mirage+scorch until you get both and it doesn't lower your odds for either. That certainly changes some things.
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