Thanks for those numbers, it's really adding up quickly and giving us a good picture of the breeding odds. I ran a bunch of rainbow/dbl rainbows again today and came up with 1 more normal hybrid. That's only 2 out of 128 breeds, putting the odds at 1-2 percent for normal hybrid so far. Given that there are around 80 normal hybrids, that's a 0.02 percent chance of getting a specific normal hybrid. Getting a Poison dragon from Rainbow+Rainbow is rarer than trying to get even a Chromacorn with the right breeding combo!
That really is ridiculous for a so called dragon breeding game, sorry I just have to say this. Thank you so much for doing this experiment, we will keep on going. If they had any sense they would hire you on the spot. We will keep going with the testing, consider me one of your little helpers rat in the future (And for those wondering, I actually like rats, they are adventurous and furry and cute, what is there not to like!)
My results today (5/19/19) I did 3 parks today, using my own park to breed the double rainbow and rainbow, since I may end up with some of the Rift epics that I need. 😊 My park, level 125, Rift aligned to air. double rainbow dark trait, level 17 x rainbow fire trait, level 16, 13 breeds dodo: 1N frostfire: 1N Bramble: 1R snapper: 1R pepper: 1R mirror: 1N shining: 1R chimneypuff: 1R steam: 1N brilliant: 1R Halo: 1 R soot: 1R chitin: 1R alas, I was unable to get any epics from my park, but 3 from the test park ( see below) ============================= Park 1, level 125, Rift aligned to earth double rainbow metal trait, level 19 x rainbow fire trait, level 17, 12 breeds pepper: 1R snapper: 1R frostbite: 1R ragnarok: 1R auroch: 1R electrum: 1R bronze: 1R chimneypuff: 1R halo: 1 R char: 1R soot: 1N forest: 1R ================================== Park 2, level 125, aligned to light mountain cold trait, level 17 x poison fire trait, level 17, 12 breeds lava: 2R soot: 1 N smoulderbrush: 1N arctic: 1N bluefire: 1R, 1N fever: 1N tree: 1R poison:1R glacier: 1R flower: 1R
Total Normal: 84 49.70% Total Opposites: 13 7.69% Total Golden: 69 40.83% Total Epic: 3 1.78% Total: 169 Non Rift: 37 21.89%
Rainbow + Dbl Rainbow: Total Normal: 2 1.30% Total Opposites: 20 12.99% Total Rifts: 5 3.25% Total Golden: 104 67.53% Total Epic: 23 14.94% Total: 154 Non Rift: 34 22.08% It's looking like it is a 22 percent chance your dragon will not have a trait, 78 percent that it will have one. Wonder why they picked that number, seems a strange one and not 20 or 25. I wonder if it's just input error, and it's really 25. It wouldn't surprise me if we just didn't catch a few when doing them quickly, and even just being 4 or 5 off in either breeding would put it at 25 percent.
This is based purely on anecdote but I've always assumed that the game chooses randomly between Parent A's trait, Parent B's trait, the Daily Alignment as a Trait, and having no trait. So 25% was alao what I was expecting.
If the numbers are accurate, I suppose it's possible that there's another factor in play. Perhaps each parent's trait is giving a small boost in odds proportional to their level, or something similar.
Many thanks to everyone contributing to this project, and especially to Quil for spearheading it.
Last Edit: May 19, 2019 22:56:21 GMT -6 by Arkynos
This is based purely on anecdote but I've always assumed that the game chooses randomly between Parent A's trait, Parent B's trait, the Daily Alignment as a Trait, and having no trait. So 25% was alao what I was expecting.
If the numbers are accurate, I suppose it's possible that there's another factor in play. Perhaps each parent's trait is giving a small boost in odds proportional to their level, or something similar.
Many thanks to everyone contributing to this project, and especially to Quil for spearheading it.
I was actually thinking the same, beat me to it luggage. This testing is harder than it looks like, I feel like there are too many factors that interupt.
This is based purely on anecdote but I've always assumed that the game chooses randomly between Parent A's trait, Parent B's trait, the Daily Alignment as a Trait, and having no trait. So 25% was alao what I was expecting.
If the numbers are accurate, I suppose it's possible that there's another factor in play. Perhaps each parent's trait is giving a small boost in odds proportional to their level, or something similar.
Many thanks to everyone contributing to this project, and especially to Quil for spearheading it.
I was actually thinking the same, beat me to it luggage. This testing is harder than it looks like, I feel like there are too many factors that interupt.
Just to make clear, I still think the testing has real value, even though there are great unknown factors. Factors we will never ever know, that is why this is really important work.
Level 92 Rift aligned to plant mountain earth trait level 10, poison fire trait level 10 Tree - T Flower - T 2 Evergreen - T both 2 Frostflower - T both Mountain - T Lichen - T Forest - T Fever - T
Water Alighnment D.Rainbow (Metal Trait) Level 10 and Rainbow (Dark Trait) Level 10 (Not sure if I should just keep using the same traits or if I should be swapping them)
Sandstorm 1 Normal Vortex 1 Traited Bronze Olympus 1 T Lodestone 1 T Sand 1 T Orchid 1 T Shining 1 T Iridescent 1 N Current 1 T Fissure 1 T Inferno 1 T Auroch 1 T
Total Normal: 106 51.71% Total Opposites: 15 7.32% Total Golden: 79 38.54% Total Epic: 5 2.44% Total: 205 Non Rift: 50 24.75%
Rainbow / Dbl: Total Normal: 9 3.02% Total Opposites: 40 13.42% Total Rifts: 9 3.02% Total Golden: 189 63.42% Total Epic: 51 17.11% Total: 298 Non Rift: 70 24.22% I discovered why our Non Rift percentage was so low compared to the expected 25 percent. I was counting the rift only dragons in the list, such as Frostfluff, and those dragons have a 100 percent chance of being rift. That brought down the percentage a point or two, into the 22/23 range. The new number above reflect removing those dragons from the sum, and we're now seeing 24.5 percent total. That's close enough with a +/- margin of error to assume the 25 is correct.
Also looking at the trending data with rainbows, the more common rares (like goldens) appear to be showing up just slightly less often than I would expect with the exact scaling back for the available dataset sizes. And the rarer epics are slightly up. I wonder if there's some factoring in for each dragon to make it so the rarest ones don't drop too low when the result sets are larger. It's not a big change, we're talking a few 10ths of a percent difference, so it could just be lack of enough data. But it also wouldn't surprise me if they modify the rarest dragons, or some of the rarest dragons could get absurdly low when they have large result sets.
The normal hybrid dragons have made a big jump, we're now at 3 percent. This just shows we're missing enough data to make accurate predictions, but with nearly 300 results in the rainbow breeds it's certainly going to end up close to that number, 5 or under.
Level 92 Rift aligned to fire mountain earth trait level 10, poison fire trait level 10 Conifer T 2 Frostflower T both Tree T 3 Evergreen 1 T/ 2 N Blue Fire N 3 Moss 1 T / 2 N Poison T
I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm kinda shocked that two rainbows don't produce normal hybrids. Just 1 out of 65 attempts, where we received 55 rare hybrids or opposites!
Also looking at the trending data with rainbows, the more common rares (like goldens) appear to be showing up just slightly less often than I would expect with the exact scaling back for the available dataset sizes. And the rarer epics are slightly up. I wonder if there's some factoring in for each dragon to make it so the rarest ones don't drop too low when the result sets are larger. It's not a big change, we're talking a few 10ths of a percent difference, so it could just be lack of enough data. But it also wouldn't surprise me if they modify the rarest dragons, or some of the rarest dragons could get absurdly low when they have large result sets.
The normal hybrid dragons have made a big jump, we're now at 3 percent. This just shows we're missing enough data to make accurate predictions, but with nearly 300 results in the rainbow breeds it's certainly going to end up close to that number, 5 or under.
Very pleased to see you’ve found the ways of the Rainbow + Double Rainbow extravaganza!
I’ve always recorded all my breeding attempts and results, including in the Rift (gotta have as much nerdy data as possible!). So of course last year, during my month-long quest for Chromacorn, I logged every result for Rainbow + Double Rainbow — 403 breeding attempts. The outcome of that data was enormously eye-opening and changed the way I view the game. It still impacts me today in my selection of which dragons to breed for new limited epics and rare hybrids.
During the 400+ breeds while chasing Chromacorn, I only bred one regular hybrid. And it was fairly early on during the first couple days. I postulate you’ll breed more regular hybrids now than when I was breeding during BEB, because there’s a much smaller number of offspring (the number of offspring makes a huge difference). Within the 403 breeds, I bred every limited epic, epic, limited rare, and golden hybrid possible that BEB had to offer, except Ambrosia and Silver Olympus.
When I first mentioned my Rainbow + Double Rainbow results last year, it was not received very well at all. The idea that the type of parent dragons used would influence the type of dragons bred was frowned upon. We’ve assumed breeding two epic dragons aren’t going to result in any more epic or rare dragons than using two regular hybrids. And while that may be true most of the time, in the case of epics that contain all the elements, it is no longer true.
I can certainly understand why people thought I was nuts for suggesting the Rainbow outcome. At the time, it turned breeding results on its head. But it was impossible to ignore the data; it was remarkable. And to this day I am relieved I didn’t have to level up numerous dragons to properly target breed all those limited epic and rare dragons that I so easily bred with a single pair. Now, I only have to focus on limited dragons with locked combos as they become available during events.
Today, things are very different. Throughout the year, it’s been reported by many players that the results of breeding Rainbow + Double Rainbow will produce limiteds, epics, and golden hybrids. There will be very few regular hybrids. More players are paying closer attention to their breeding outcomes, and as a result it’s affecting their dragon breeding decisions. Some players recently used Rainbow + Double Rainbow in the Burcadian Breeding Cave. While I didn’t employ this strategy, I can see where it was born from, and how it’s a clever and compelling approach.
The fantastic results of Rainbow + Double Rainbow can be replicated with any epic dragon that contains all the elements. I’ve tested this with Sprout + Sprout, and the results are the same (although when breeding two of the same epics, you’ll get a lot of that epic, per the parent breeding rule). This also holds true in the Vale. I’ve been breeding and recording the results of Portent + Portent for a while, and I’m not receiving any Flower-ish dragons. However, if an epic dragon that’s missing some of the elements is bred, everything changes, and you will breed a fair share of regular hybrids.
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I came to this thread to post an update about the new park I said I’d start a couple weeks ago to assist in this project. But of course I digressed into the ever alluring Rainbow rabbit hole and barely made it back.
In my new alt park, I unlocked the Rift last week, but it’s going to take a bit longer before I have enough Etherium/food to level up two dragons to 10. On the bright side, I have bred a Poison and Mountain. On the dull side, I can only do four breeds a day because at this stage Etherium is almost exclusively spent on buying/upgrading habitats so more dragons can be bred. Even though I can’t give you a lot of data, at least you’ll have the benefit of another park contributing numbers, since having a diversity of parks from various players and devices is the key to a reliable and accurate sample size. In the meanwhile, I’ll read through this thread during the week. Happy sampling!
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You don't by chance have that recorded 403 attempts data available to share, do you? I would love to be able to compare the numbers during BeB to now, and see some of the impacts of the extra results to the dragon's today.
On the size of the rift and 4 breeds per day, I totally understand. I have two little parks doing that now, that only contribute 4 breeds of poison + mountain. As you said, everything helps and it all adds up.
I have some theories on the normal hybrid numbers and exactly when they'll show up, and at what percent, that I'll try to share soon.
2 days worth of testing, before and after reset. Park Level 125
Double Rainbow (Metal Trait) Level 10 and Rainbow (Dark Trait) Level 10 Air Lignment
Soot 1 Traited Tempest 1 Normal Silverline 1 T Frostfire 1 T Auroch 1 N Vortex 1 T Lagoon 1 T Verdigris 1 T Bubble 1 T Snapper 1 T Nectar 1 T Snowy Bronze 1 T
Double Rainbow (Metal Trait) Level 10 and Rainbow (Dark Trait) Level 10 Metal Alignment
Plains 1 Traited Sprout 1 T Inferno 1 Normal Arid 1 T Infrared 1 T Auroch 1 T Malachite 1 N Lodestone 1 T Soot 1 N Blue Moon 1 N Shining 1 T Snowy Bronze 1 N
You don't by chance have that recorded 403 attempts data available to share, do you? I would love to be able to compare the numbers during BeB to now, and see some of the impacts of the extra results to the dragon's today.
On the size of the rift and 4 breeds per day, I totally understand. I have two little parks doing that now, that only contribute 4 breeds of poison + mountain. As you said, everything helps and it all adds up.
I have some theories on the normal hybrid numbers and exactly when they'll show up, and at what percent, that I'll try to share soon.
I’d be delighted to share the Chromacorn data. It’s been extremely beneficial for me, but I’d much prefer it was beneficial to many.
I’ve been tracking breeding results for 7-8 years and back then it was easier for me to do it in longhand. I’ve carried the habit over the years, and now I have a library of notebooks filled will breeding results. It was always my intention to put the data in a much more computerised format, but as the data builds the task correspondingly grows more daunting. I did convert lots of results into proper tables for other breeding tests, but that was pre-Chromacorn. So unfortunately, I don’t have a nice, clean Chromacorn spreadsheet to attach. However, I can post the results in this thread, as everyone else is doing, gradually on a day by day basis. That way it won’t be too overwhelming, because honestly, if I were to wait until I had a large block of time to enter all the data, it could take a month. I can post several days worth of results at a time, so it’ll just be a couple weeks to complete. Back then, I only did 12-14 breeds in the Rift per day.
Of course, my data won’t help your current efforts. The results included BEB dragons, parent dragons at level 18 instead of 10, park at max level, and any new dragons since last July weren’t included, so it’d really muddy up any data you’re collecting now. But for curiosity purposes, it’d be interesting to compare results, even if it’s not very helpful today.
I’ll post the first Rainbow results later in the day/night...
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Level 92 Rift aligned to fire mountain earth trait level 10, poison fire trait level 10 Pepper T 2 Tree T both Moss T Permafrost T Mountain non Lichen T 2 Obsidian T both
If it would help and you'd feel comfortable doing it, you could post screen shots of some of the data, especially starting with the BeB Chromacorn breeds. I'd be just as happy converting it from a picture of the notepad as from a text post and it would probably be significantly easier on your end.
I would certainly keep the data in a separate spreadsheet page, and could run data comparisons between the old and new data. And I could also get you a link to the data so you can make a copy yourself.
Today’s results (5/22/19) I only did the 2 test parks now that the chrysalis are breedable, I need to use my park to start breeding the pearlescent. And no, I did not get one today. 😢
test park 1, level 125, aligned to water. DR metal trait, level 19 x rainbow fire trait, level 17. 12 breeds: Arid 2N Lagoon 1R Plains 1R Inferno 1N Candescent 1R Ignite 1N Chitin 1R Lodestone 1R Derecho 1N Shining 1R Pepper 1R ======================================== test park 2, level 125, aligned to fire. Mountain cold trait, level 17 x poison fire trait, level 17. 12 breeds: Permafrost 3R Obsidian 1R Poison 1R Soot 2R, 1N Frostflower 1R Frostfire 1R Bluefire 1R, 1N
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I was actually thinking the same, beat me to it luggage. This is based purely on anecdote but I've always assumed that the game chooses randomly between Parent A's trait, Parent B's trait, the Daily Alignment as a Trait, and having no trait. So 25% was alao what I was expecting.
