I have a question (actually, some questions) for the statistics/odds/game mechanics people: I understand that as we get more and more dragons, and thus more possible outcomes for a breed, the odds of getting any particular one fall below what they originally were. If you have two dragons and equal chance for each, they are each 50%, then you introduce a new dragon with 20% chance, does that mean the original dragons become 40% each, or are the three 41.7%, 41.7%, 16.7%? Either way, if a low-odds dragon is introduced, it wouldn't affect the odds of the older dragons too much, but introducing a higher-odds dragon has more effect, and it would be cumulative (I'm too lazy to calculate the odds of sequentially introducing 10 dragons with 2% odds to see how it compares to one 20% dragon, especially since I don't know the answer to my first question), so there is a continuous "erosion" of the odds as new ones are introduced into the game. So at this point, with so many dragons, is it even possible to introduce higher-odds dragons without upsetting the balance of the other dragons? Or is that why it's harder to breed previously-released dragons? With more dragons added later as possible results, will dragons become harder to breed as they become older, so the time of their release is the easiest they will ever be?
That is exactly how it works, when just looking at straight breeding odds. 50/50/20 becomes 41.7/41.7/16.7. Except it's a lot more complex than that in reality. First, none of the dragons are 20%, they're pretty much all in the low single digits. So it takes a large result set to force the numbers to drop. If every dragon is 2%, it takes 51 dragons to drop any of their chances under 2%.
Second, there are dynamic odds dragons. For example, the normal hybrids don't have set odds. They 'fill in' the blanks. If your result set is 2 dragons at 5% each, and 2 possible normal hybrids, then the 2 are at 5 each and the 2 hybrids are at 45 each: (100 - 5)/2. When you do Rainbow + Rainbow, it doesn't leave any room for the normal hybrids at all as all of the rares add up over 100. But we've found that there is a roughly 1% chance that it 'saves' for these dragons with dynamic odds, so it's 99% chance to be a special breed, and a 1% to be any of the normal hybrids.
Finally, there's parent cloning. Those odds appear to be static regardless of the number of results. If one parent has a single clone chance of 10%, that never changes regardless of the number of results - they all get lowered to meet the new criteria.
So yes, if they added a ton of permanent dragons or if they bring back a large enough number of limited dragons for an event then the odds of getting old dragons can and will drop.
I have a question (actually, some questions) for the statistics/odds/game mechanics people: I understand that as we get more and more dragons, and thus more possible outcomes for a breed, the odds of getting any particular one fall below what they originally were. If you have two dragons and equal chance for each, they are each 50%, then you introduce a new dragon with 20% chance, does that mean the original dragons become 40% each, or are the three 41.7%, 41.7%, 16.7%? Either way, if a low-odds dragon is introduced, it wouldn't affect the odds of the older dragons too much, but introducing a higher-odds dragon has more effect, and it would be cumulative (I'm too lazy to calculate the odds of sequentially introducing 10 dragons with 2% odds to see how it compares to one 20% dragon, especially since I don't know the answer to my first question), so there is a continuous "erosion" of the odds as new ones are introduced into the game. So at this point, with so many dragons, is it even possible to introduce higher-odds dragons without upsetting the balance of the other dragons? Or is that why it's harder to breed previously-released dragons? With more dragons added later as possible results, will dragons become harder to breed as they become older, so the time of their release is the easiest they will ever be?
adlerist has mentioned this a couple times before and I believe during the last event when the topic came up. Since it’ll take me a while to find the post, I’ll try to repeat it here.
For a new dragon to really affect the breeding odds, the dragon needs to be permanent, so it’s available constantly. All the Pirate dragons from the last event can’t be fails in this event because they’re limiteds and not available now. The only permanent dragons DECA has added that could be fails during any event are the golden hybrids they added a while ago and Triple Rainbow.
Since the events repeat themselves and dragons come back a year later, some of the returning dragons could add to the fails while breeding during the event. But since DECA is using a lot of locked breeding combos, that lessens the impact even more, because dragons with locked combos can’t be fails unless you’re using the breeding hint.
Basically, DECA can add 500 dragons, and if they’re all limiteds and unavailable now, it won’t affect the breeding odds for any of the dragons in this event.
Cheers! You probably said it better, and I’ll copy / paste your reply from now on. 😊
Friend ID: adlerist#5274
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Of course it’s hearsay. Most of the posts on this forum are hearsay. But we still live in an analog world, not a digital world. Much of it can be characterized by numbers, but not touch, feel, and emotion. How many untraited dragons could be bred in the Rift when it was first introduced to the game compared to now? How does that feel? How many final moves in the mini-games now come down to chance compared to when they were first introduced? How does that feel? How many back-to-back events do we have now compared to the earlier BFS years? How does that feel?
Deca has brought many good things to the Vale. They have also fine-tuned quite a lot of the heart and soul out of the game. That’s a feel thing, not a numbers thing. I’m complaining about it and maybe shouldn’t be.
My two whatevers.
I believe Adlerist tracked all her breeding results in the Rift and Vale for the last 5-10 years and probably has the data to show if dragons without traits are showing more frequently than years ago.
The problem here is that assumptions are being made that the Rift breeding odds were lowered, the frequency of no traits was raised, and the mini-game odds were lowered. As you said earlier, we don’t want to get too close to conspiracy theories. I’ve seen players take theories they read from one site and spread them around to others, then eventually everyone thinks it’s a fact even tho there’s no proof and no one bothered to test it.
I don’t think the percentage for untraited dragons has increased. It’s always seemed slightly higher than 25%, but not by much. The problem is someone assumed it was 25% for each parent, 25% for the alignment, and 25% no trait. Then, as you said, this was passed on as facts, and now it’s written in DV communities in their help and FAQ sections. So now everyone thinks 25% is the truth. This isn’t the first time this has happened, and it’s always frustrating when it occurs.
To me, the solution isn’t to find out the exact untraited percentage, or to make assumptions about what’s affecting the percentage. The answer is to see if Deca will allow players to add or remove a trait at the Rift Breeding Cave.
Friend ID: adlerist#5274
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You send them the breed combo, and the server sends back the results. It's all tracked on their end. That's why there's occasionally a long pause after you breed something, before you see that it's been confirmed.
I've not noticed anything wrong with their random number generator, I just don't think we fully understand all of their rules. From the testing that we've done on cloning dragons and such, and even breeding for some of the dragons, the numbers are pretty accurate and land exactly where I'd expect from just a sampling of data. One of the reasons I added the 'After 10 tries', 'After 50 tries' etc to the Compendium is to really get a good feel for how hard it is to get a dragon. Sometimes just seeing 3% or 1% is not enough. If I've tried for something 80 times and not gotten it, my first thought is that the RNG is just broken. But the odds may show that 1 or 2 players out of 10 won't have it after 80 attempts, and then it's just very likely I'm that player. When you get something on the first few attempts, your mind tends to move on quickly to the next task and you don't dwell long on how 'easy' it was for you.
What's really been breaking my spirit is getting constant non rift versions of dragons I need in the rift. I really want to understand what those odds are, cause it's not 25% per parent element, 25 rift element setting, and 25 no element as we first guessed.
DV has always been a trade off between frustration and reward. Right now frustration is winning out because of the dysfunctional breeding, especially in the Rift. Today, I bred a normal Omen in the Rift. I need the traited version. Last event, after four weeks and many dozens of attempts, I got a normal Tidal, long after a traited version would have been of any use. I already have two normal Tidal dragons in my Vale park that I bred shortly after I began playing the game. It did not take anything like four weeks to breed either one. If it had, I would not be playing the game today.
My Rift has lost any pretense of utility in my game. I might eventually be able to breed a traited dragon that I need, but it is not worth the cost in time, Etherium, or aggravation. The early traited hybrids came very easily as well as more elusive dragons like the Rainbows. Now it has become next to impossible to breed anything I need.
The Rift has suffered the same fate as Eggy Hatchy: at first, fun and easy to get what you need, then reprogrammed to make everything a tough slog that is totally not fun. It is driving me out of the game.
obijuan, have you considered ignoring the Rift? You can still play DV in the Vale, just skip the Rift. I have an alt park, and I can’t dedicate much time to it, because I already have a couple other parks, so I never built up the Rift. It only plays the Vale, and I’m very happy with it.
It seems at this point, even if you’re blessed with a run of sensational luck, it won’t change your mind about the Rift. And since Deca will not raise the breeding percentages for all or most of Backflip’s rare and epic dragons, there won’t be any immediate changes to breeding them in the Rift, so the frustration will remain.
You’ve said several times that the Rift is 'useless' because you can’t breed the target dragon or the grandparents or great-grandparents of the new dragons. If I were you, I’d breed in the Vale. In the Rift, I’d collect Etherium and purchase mystery eggs. Through the eggs, after I acquired 75% - 80% of the dragons traited (incidentally, you’ll also have 75% - 80% of the twins too!), I’d start breeding in the Rift to obtain the remaining traited dragons. I would also strategise and use Twin Weekend, daily reward eggs, event reward eggs, and the RBCs to help acquire the final traited dragons I needed.
Backflip purposely put the mystery eggs in the Rift Market because they were well aware that new and returning players would have difficulty obtaining hundreds and hundreds of dragons, hundreds and hundreds of twins, and hundreds and hundreds of traited dragons. It was a brilliant solution because it helped all levels of players and introduced a new dragon version, the traited-twin, for endgamers to collect. To not utilise the mystery eggs out of nostalgia, or a purist idea that all dragons must be bred, is to ignore the tools in the game that are there to help you succeed.
If you employed the above strategy, the Vale would be like the original DV, and you’ll enjoy breeding in the Vale. The Rift would be a different game of buying mystery eggs and the excitement of seeing what you can win. When I have the time to build the Rift in my alt park, I will be following this plan.
This is 100% what I’d do right now, if I was in your position. I am not exaggerating in the least. I’d implement this strategy today and leave all the frustration behind in yesterday’s dust.
Friend ID: adlerist#5274
Due to a potential limit on the number of friends a player can have before issues arise in the game, I will only be able to add Forum members. Thank you, for your understanding, and please consider joining us!
DV has always been a trade off between frustration and reward. Right now frustration is winning out because of the dysfunctional breeding, especially in the Rift. Today, I bred a normal Omen in the Rift. I need the traited version. Last event, after four weeks and many dozens of attempts, I got a normal Tidal, long after a traited version would have been of any use. I already have two normal Tidal dragons in my Vale park that I bred shortly after I began playing the game. It did not take anything like four weeks to breed either one. If it had, I would not be playing the game today.
My Rift has lost any pretense of utility in my game. I might eventually be able to breed a traited dragon that I need, but it is not worth the cost in time, Etherium, or aggravation. The early traited hybrids came very easily as well as more elusive dragons like the Rainbows. Now it has become next to impossible to breed anything I need.
The Rift has suffered the same fate as Eggy Hatchy: at first, fun and easy to get what you need, then reprogrammed to make everything a tough slog that is totally not fun. It is driving me out of the game.
obijuan , have you considered ignoring the Rift? You can still play DV in the Vale, just skip the Rift. I have an alt park, and I can’t dedicate much time to it, because I already have a couple other parks, so I never built up the Rift. It only plays the Vale, and I’m very happy with it.
It seems at this point, even if you’re blessed with a run of sensational luck, it won’t change your mind about the Rift. And since Deca will not raise the breeding percentages for all or most of Backflip’s rare and epic dragons, there won’t be any immediate changes to breeding them in the Rift, so the frustration will remain.
You’ve said several times that the Rift is 'useless' because you can’t breed the target dragon or the grandparents or great-grandparents of the new dragons. If I were you, I’d breed in the Vale. In the Rift, I’d collect Etherium and purchase mystery eggs. Through the eggs, after I acquired 75% - 80% of the dragons traited (incidentally, you’ll also have 75% - 80% of the twins too!), I’d start breeding in the Rift to obtain the remaining traited dragons. I would also strategise and use Twin Weekend, daily reward eggs, event reward eggs, and the RBCs to help acquire the final traited dragons I needed.
Backflip purposely put the mystery eggs in the Rift Market because they were well aware that new and returning players would have difficulty obtaining hundreds and hundreds of dragons, hundreds and hundreds of twins, and hundreds and hundreds of traited dragons. It was a brilliant solution because it helped all levels of players and introduced a new dragon version, the traited-twin, for endgamers to collect. To not utilise the mystery eggs out of nostalgia, or a purist idea that all dragons must be bred, is to ignore the tools in the game that are there to help you succeed.
If you employed the above strategy, the Vale would be like the original DV, and you’ll enjoy breeding in the Vale. The Rift would be a different game of buying mystery eggs and the excitement of seeing what you can win. When I have the time to build the Rift in my alt park, I will be following this plan.
This is 100% what I’d do right now, if I was in your position. I am not exaggerating in the least. I’d implement this strategy today and leave all the frustration behind in yesterday’s dust.
I would do this too. It’s not worth the pain. The breeding isn’t going to get easier for old BFS dragons, so every event will have this problem and the Rift will only become more annoying. This is a way out of the aggravation. I’m totally going to do this with my other park that doesn’t have a lot of traited dragons. Thanks for the tip, adlerist!
DV has always been a trade off between frustration and reward. Right now frustration is winning out because of the dysfunctional breeding, especially in the Rift. Today, I bred a normal Omen in the Rift. I need the traited version. Last event, after four weeks and many dozens of attempts, I got a normal Tidal, long after a traited version would have been of any use. I already have two normal Tidal dragons in my Vale park that I bred shortly after I began playing the game. It did not take anything like four weeks to breed either one. If it had, I would not be playing the game today.
My Rift has lost any pretense of utility in my game. I might eventually be able to breed a traited dragon that I need, but it is not worth the cost in time, Etherium, or aggravation. The early traited hybrids came very easily as well as more elusive dragons like the Rainbows. Now it has become next to impossible to breed anything I need.
The Rift has suffered the same fate as Eggy Hatchy: at first, fun and easy to get what you need, then reprogrammed to make everything a tough slog that is totally not fun. It is driving me out of the game.
obijuan , have you considered ignoring the Rift? You can still play DV in the Vale, just skip the Rift. I have an alt park, and I can’t dedicate much time to it, because I already have a couple other parks, so I never built up the Rift. It only plays the Vale, and I’m very happy with it.
It seems at this point, even if you’re blessed with a run of sensational luck, it won’t change your mind about the Rift. And since Deca will not raise the breeding percentages for all or most of Backflip’s rare and epic dragons, there won’t be any immediate changes to breeding them in the Rift, so the frustration will remain.
You’ve said several times that the Rift is 'useless' because you can’t breed the target dragon or the grandparents or great-grandparents of the new dragons. If I were you, I’d breed in the Vale. In the Rift, I’d collect Etherium and purchase mystery eggs. Through the eggs, after I acquired 75% - 80% of the dragons traited (incidentally, you’ll also have 75% - 80% of the twins too!), I’d start breeding in the Rift to obtain the remaining traited dragons. I would also strategise and use Twin Weekend, daily reward eggs, event reward eggs, and the RBCs to help acquire the final traited dragons I needed.
Backflip purposely put the mystery eggs in the Rift Market because they were well aware that new and returning players would have difficulty obtaining hundreds and hundreds of dragons, hundreds and hundreds of twins, and hundreds and hundreds of traited dragons. It was a brilliant solution because it helped all levels of players and introduced a new dragon version, the traited-twin, for endgamers to collect. To not utilise the mystery eggs out of nostalgia, or a purist idea that all dragons must be bred, is to ignore the tools in the game that are there to help you succeed.
If you employed the above strategy, the Vale would be like the original DV, and you’ll enjoy breeding in the Vale. The Rift would be a different game of buying mystery eggs and the excitement of seeing what you can win. When I have the time to build the Rift in my alt park, I will be following this plan.
This is 100% what I’d do right now, if I was in your position. I am not exaggerating in the least. I’d implement this strategy today and leave all the frustration behind in yesterday’s dust.
Brilliant! Scratch everything written before. This is the solution. For my parks that have half or less of the dragons with traits, this is what I’m going to do. For the others, it’s too late, they have too many Rift dragons (all of the BFS dragons and most of DECA’s), so the mystery eggs would give dupes. I might still try it tho. I wish I thought of this earlier, but tbh, I never would’ve come up with this strategy.
DV has always been a trade off between frustration and reward. Right now frustration is winning out because of the dysfunctional breeding, especially in the Rift. Today, I bred a normal Omen in the Rift. I need the traited version. Last event, after four weeks and many dozens of attempts, I got a normal Tidal, long after a traited version would have been of any use. I already have two normal Tidal dragons in my Vale park that I bred shortly after I began playing the game. It did not take anything like four weeks to breed either one. If it had, I would not be playing the game today.
My Rift has lost any pretense of utility in my game. I might eventually be able to breed a traited dragon that I need, but it is not worth the cost in time, Etherium, or aggravation. The early traited hybrids came very easily as well as more elusive dragons like the Rainbows. Now it has become next to impossible to breed anything I need.
The Rift has suffered the same fate as Eggy Hatchy: at first, fun and easy to get what you need, then reprogrammed to make everything a tough slog that is totally not fun. It is driving me out of the game.
obijuan , have you considered ignoring the Rift? You can still play DV in the Vale, just skip the Rift. I have an alt park, and I can’t dedicate much time to it, because I already have a couple other parks, so I never built up the Rift. It only plays the Vale, and I’m very happy with it.
It seems at this point, even if you’re blessed with a run of sensational luck, it won’t change your mind about the Rift. And since Deca will not raise the breeding percentages for all or most of Backflip’s rare and epic dragons, there won’t be any immediate changes to breeding them in the Rift, so the frustration will remain.
You’ve said several times that the Rift is 'useless' because you can’t breed the target dragon or the grandparents or great-grandparents of the new dragons. If I were you, I’d breed in the Vale. In the Rift, I’d collect Etherium and purchase mystery eggs. Through the eggs, after I acquired 75% - 80% of the dragons traited (incidentally, you’ll also have 75% - 80% of the twins too!), I’d start breeding in the Rift to obtain the remaining traited dragons. I would also strategise and use Twin Weekend, daily reward eggs, event reward eggs, and the RBCs to help acquire the final traited dragons I needed.
Backflip purposely put the mystery eggs in the Rift Market because they were well aware that new and returning players would have difficulty obtaining hundreds and hundreds of dragons, hundreds and hundreds of twins, and hundreds and hundreds of traited dragons. It was a brilliant solution because it helped all levels of players and introduced a new dragon version, the traited-twin, for endgamers to collect. To not utilise the mystery eggs out of nostalgia, or a purist idea that all dragons must be bred, is to ignore the tools in the game that are there to help you succeed.
If you employed the above strategy, the Vale would be like the original DV, and you’ll enjoy breeding in the Vale. The Rift would be a different game of buying mystery eggs and the excitement of seeing what you can win. When I have the time to build the Rift in my alt park, I will be following this plan.
This is 100% what I’d do right now, if I was in your position. I am not exaggerating in the least. I’d implement this strategy today and leave all the frustration behind in yesterday’s dust.
This is exactly what I am doing - just totally ignoring the Rift, not even collecting Etherium. Deca needs to either get untraited dragons completely out of the Rift or, when the breeding algorithm spits out an untraited dragon, give the player the option of which version to take. That would make Rift breeding less onerous than it is now. And I have purchased enough Mystery Eggs that the inflated price in Etherium is prohibitive. This is another Rift weakness. There aren't enough pathways to acquire traited dragons compared to what is possible in the Vale. Some kind of Rift market option for a few different traited dragons would help. Deca could change the dragons on offer on a weekly basis. I really do think that Deca's Rift breeding algorithm is fubar, but can't prove anything yet.
Last Edit: Aug 9, 2022 20:19:10 GMT -6 by MinyaZ: Fixed BBCode
Posts: 4,392
Platform: iPad Accepting New Gifts: Thanks friends; this game now a solid chore, no longer a delight sadly, so taking an indefinite break. Koala to all. Forum Name to Tag: kiwichris01
I am a big fan of The Rift and often get new dragons there before I can generate them in the regular park. But I’ve really struggled to get traited Midnight, Dusk, and Midday during this event. Today I received 8 traited Hail dragons in a row, then I finally got the MIDDAY I’ve been hoping to get for days! Yea! Now i have all 3 of these elusive wyrms. ✨🐉🐉🐉✨ This game can be frustrating, but it continues to be engaging and fun. I am confident the game is honest and fair. Without the challenges and fails, it would be too easy. If you truly love koalas, you have to love the bitey ones as much as the sweet ones. 💫🐨💫
Spoke with my daughter tonight about her game. She needed a traited Sunstruck dragon for this event, bred three over a five day period, but only the third was traited.
The Bandwagon event was an easy one for me. Towards the end I decided to try to replace five traited enhanced dragons in the Vale (1 Darcowl, 2 Dash, 1 Outrider, 1 Quantum) with their normal counterparts. I had acquired all five traited versions at some time in the past when my Rift was actually producing traited dragons. I easily got all five normal dragons, usually on the first day of breeding. I’m glad I was able to get all these normal dragons in a short amount of time, but why from the Rift? I cannot remember anything like this happening in the past.
DV has always been a trade off between frustration and reward. Right now frustration is winning out because of the dysfunctional breeding, especially in the Rift. Today, I bred a normal Omen in the Rift. I need the traited version. Last event, after four weeks and many dozens of attempts, I got a normal Tidal, long after a traited version would have been of any use. I already have two normal Tidal dragons in my Vale park that I bred shortly after I began playing the game. It did not take anything like four weeks to breed either one. If it had, I would not be playing the game today.
My Rift has lost any pretense of utility in my game. I might eventually be able to breed a traited dragon that I need, but it is not worth the cost in time, Etherium, or aggravation. The early traited hybrids came very easily as well as more elusive dragons like the Rainbows. Now it has become next to impossible to breed anything I need.
The Rift has suffered the same fate as Eggy Hatchy: at first, fun and easy to get what you need, then reprogrammed to make everything a tough slog that is totally not fun. It is driving me out of the game.
obijuan , have you considered ignoring the Rift? You can still play DV in the Vale, just skip the Rift. I have an alt park, and I can’t dedicate much time to it, because I already have a couple other parks, so I never built up the Rift. It only plays the Vale, and I’m very happy with it.
It seems at this point, even if you’re blessed with a run of sensational luck, it won’t change your mind about the Rift. And since Deca will not raise the breeding percentages for all or most of Backflip’s rare and epic dragons, there won’t be any immediate changes to breeding them in the Rift, so the frustration will remain.
You’ve said several times that the Rift is 'useless' because you can’t breed the target dragon or the grandparents or great-grandparents of the new dragons. If I were you, I’d breed in the Vale. In the Rift, I’d collect Etherium and purchase mystery eggs. Through the eggs, after I acquired 75% - 80% of the dragons traited (incidentally, you’ll also have 75% - 80% of the twins too!), I’d start breeding in the Rift to obtain the remaining traited dragons. I would also strategise and use Twin Weekend, daily reward eggs, event reward eggs, and the RBCs to help acquire the final traited dragons I needed.
Backflip purposely put the mystery eggs in the Rift Market because they were well aware that new and returning players would have difficulty obtaining hundreds and hundreds of dragons, hundreds and hundreds of twins, and hundreds and hundreds of traited dragons. It was a brilliant solution because it helped all levels of players and introduced a new dragon version, the traited-twin, for endgamers to collect. To not utilise the mystery eggs out of nostalgia, or a purist idea that all dragons must be bred, is to ignore the tools in the game that are there to help you succeed.
If you employed the above strategy, the Vale would be like the original DV, and you’ll enjoy breeding in the Vale. The Rift would be a different game of buying mystery eggs and the excitement of seeing what you can win. When I have the time to build the Rift in my alt park, I will be following this plan.
This is 100% what I’d do right now, if I was in your position. I am not exaggerating in the least. I’d implement this strategy today and leave all the frustration behind in yesterday’s dust.
This is an outstanding tip! I agree with samiam - this needs to be added to the Help Desk. Most players are never going to think of this. 😊
I believe Adlerist tracked all her breeding results in the Rift and Vale for the last 5-10 years and probably has the data to show if dragons without traits are showing more frequently than years ago.
The problem here is that assumptions are being made that the Rift breeding odds were lowered, the frequency of no traits was raised, and the mini-game odds were lowered. As you said earlier, we don’t want to get too close to conspiracy theories. I’ve seen players take theories they read from one site and spread them around to others, then eventually everyone thinks it’s a fact even tho there’s no proof and no one bothered to test it.
I don’t think the percentage for untraited dragons has increased. It’s always seemed slightly higher than 25%, but not by much. The problem is someone assumed it was 25% for each parent, 25% for the alignment, and 25% no trait. Then, as you said, this was passed on as facts, and now it’s written in DV communities in their help and FAQ sections. So now everyone thinks 25% is the truth. This isn’t the first time this has happened, and it’s always frustrating when it occurs.
To me, the solution isn’t to find out the exact untraited percentage, or to make assumptions about what’s affecting the percentage. The answer is to see if Deca will allow players to add or remove a trait at the Rift Breeding Cave.
Adding or removing a trait when breeding in the Rift would be a great solution. Getting a non-traited dragons is a huge source of frustration for players when finally achieving that elusive dragon. I bred three Zipzap dragons before finally getting a rifted version. 🙄
obijuan , have you considered ignoring the Rift? You can still play DV in the Vale, just skip the Rift. I have an alt park, and I can’t dedicate much time to it, because I already have a couple other parks, so I never built up the Rift. It only plays the Vale, and I’m very happy with it.
It seems at this point, even if you’re blessed with a run of sensational luck, it won’t change your mind about the Rift. And since Deca will not raise the breeding percentages for all or most of Backflip’s rare and epic dragons, there won’t be any immediate changes to breeding them in the Rift, so the frustration will remain.
You’ve said several times that the Rift is 'useless' because you can’t breed the target dragon or the grandparents or great-grandparents of the new dragons. If I were you, I’d breed in the Vale. In the Rift, I’d collect Etherium and purchase mystery eggs. Through the eggs, after I acquired 75% - 80% of the dragons traited (incidentally, you’ll also have 75% - 80% of the twins too!), I’d start breeding in the Rift to obtain the remaining traited dragons. I would also strategise and use Twin Weekend, daily reward eggs, event reward eggs, and the RBCs to help acquire the final traited dragons I needed.
Backflip purposely put the mystery eggs in the Rift Market because they were well aware that new and returning players would have difficulty obtaining hundreds and hundreds of dragons, hundreds and hundreds of twins, and hundreds and hundreds of traited dragons. It was a brilliant solution because it helped all levels of players and introduced a new dragon version, the traited-twin, for endgamers to collect. To not utilise the mystery eggs out of nostalgia, or a purist idea that all dragons must be bred, is to ignore the tools in the game that are there to help you succeed.
If you employed the above strategy, the Vale would be like the original DV, and you’ll enjoy breeding in the Vale. The Rift would be a different game of buying mystery eggs and the excitement of seeing what you can win. When I have the time to build the Rift in my alt park, I will be following this plan.
This is 100% what I’d do right now, if I was in your position. I am not exaggerating in the least. I’d implement this strategy today and leave all the frustration behind in yesterday’s dust.
This is an outstanding tip! I agree with samiam - this needs to be added to the Help Desk. Most players are never going to think of this. 😊
At some point, I’ll get the Tips for New and Returning Players section of the Help Desk together.
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I am a big fan of The Rift and often get new dragons there before I can generate them in the regular park. But I’ve really struggled to get traited Midnight, Dusk, and Midday during this event. Today I received 8 traited Hail dragons in a row, then I finally got the MIDDAY I’ve been hoping to get for days! Yea! Now i have all 3 of these elusive wyrms. ✨🐉🐉🐉✨ This game can be frustrating, but it continues to be engaging and fun. I am confident the game is honest and fair. Without the challenges and fails, it would be too easy. If you truly love koalas, you have to love the bitey ones as much as the sweet ones. 💫🐨💫
Houston? We have a problem! 8 traited Hail dragons in a row? Out of how many possibilities? Possible? Maybe. Likely? Probably not. A Black Swan event? Don't know yet. Maybe I can hijack my kid's laptop and put together an Excel spreadsheet that shows the probability of getting 8 Hail dragons in a row starting with the first breed. This is just nuts.
I am a big fan of The Rift and often get new dragons there before I can generate them in the regular park. But I’ve really struggled to get traited Midnight, Dusk, and Midday during this event. Today I received 8 traited Hail dragons in a row, then I finally got the MIDDAY I’ve been hoping to get for days! Yea! Now i have all 3 of these elusive wyrms. ✨🐉🐉🐉✨ This game can be frustrating, but it continues to be engaging and fun. I am confident the game is honest and fair. Without the challenges and fails, it would be too easy. If you truly love koalas, you have to love the bitey ones as much as the sweet ones. 💫🐨💫
Houston? We have a problem! 8 traited Hail dragons in a row? Out of how many possibilities? Possible? Maybe. Likely? Probably not. A Black Swan event? Don't know yet. Maybe I can hijack my kid's laptop and put together an Excel spreadsheet that shows the probability of getting 8 Hail dragons in a row starting with the first breed. This is just nuts.
But we still live in an analog world, not a digital world. Much of it can be characterized by numbers, but not touch, feel, and emotion. How many untraited dragons could be bred in the Rift when it was first introduced to the game compared to now? How does that feel?
How many final moves in the mini-games now come down to chance compared to when they were first introduced? How many back-to-back events do we have now compared to the earlier BFS years? How does that feel?
Deca has brought many good things to the Vale. They have also fine-tuned quite a lot of the heart and soul out of the game. That’s a feel thing, not a numbers thing.
Without some data to show what you mean by "fine tuned a lot of the hear and soul out of the game", it's just ... heresay.
Houston? We have a problem! 8 traited Hail dragons in a row? Out of how many possibilities? Possible? Maybe. Likely? Probably not. A Black Swan event? Don't know yet. Maybe I can hijack my kid's laptop and put together an Excel spreadsheet that shows the probability of getting 8 Hail dragons in a row starting with the first breed. This is just nuts.
What was the breeding combination?
Breeding combination? Sun+Dusk. I was going for Midday. Hail has a 33% potential so repeated Hail hatchings didn’t surprise me.
I am a big fan of The Rift and often get new dragons there before I can generate them in the regular park. But I’ve really struggled to get traited Midnight, Dusk, and Midday during this event. Today I received 8 traited Hail dragons in a row, then I finally got the MIDDAY I’ve been hoping to get for days! Yea! Now i have all 3 of these elusive wyrms. ✨🐉🐉🐉✨ This game can be frustrating, but it continues to be engaging and fun. I am confident the game is honest and fair. Without the challenges and fails, it would be too easy. If you truly love koalas, you have to love the bitey ones as much as the sweet ones. 💫🐨💫
Houston? We have a problem! 8 traited Hail dragons in a row? Out of how many possibilities? Possible? Maybe. Likely? Probably not. A Black Swan event? Don't know yet. Maybe I can hijack my kid's laptop and put together an Excel spreadsheet that shows the probability of getting 8 Hail dragons in a row starting with the first breed. This is just nuts.
Obijuan: Look at the breeding stats for Sun+Dusk, the combo you need to get Midday. Hail has a 33% probability. Yes, it made me a bit crazy to get so many in a row, but it didn’t make me feel like the process was bad and it didn’t make me want to abandon Rift. Getting one Hail has no impact on the next breeding. Each one still gives Hail 33% chance and Midday something like 3%. That’s how chance works. Toss a coin and get tails; that single result doesn’t influence the next toss. You can get 8 tails in a row.. DV is a game - without any guarantees that you’ll be lucky. I hope the forum is ready to let this subject fade away, at least until there is real evidence of a problem.
I believe Adlerist tracked all her breeding results in the Rift and Vale for the last 5-10 years and probably has the data to show if dragons without traits are showing more frequently than years ago.
The problem here is that assumptions are being made that the Rift breeding odds were lowered, the frequency of no traits was raised, and the mini-game odds were lowered. As you said earlier, we don’t want to get too close to conspiracy theories. I’ve seen players take theories they read from one site and spread them around to others, then eventually everyone thinks it’s a fact even tho there’s no proof and no one bothered to test it.
I don’t think the percentage for untraited dragons has increased. It’s always seemed slightly higher than 25%, but not by much. The problem is someone assumed it was 25% for each parent, 25% for the alignment, and 25% no trait. Then, as you said, this was passed on as facts, and now it’s written in DV communities in their help and FAQ sections. So now everyone thinks 25% is the truth. This isn’t the first time this has happened, and it’s always frustrating when it occurs.
To me, the solution isn’t to find out the exact untraited percentage, or to make assumptions about what’s affecting the percentage. The answer is to see if Deca will allow players to add or remove a trait at the Rift Breeding Cave.
My head tells me that as equal odds for 4 outcomes feels vaguely close enough and is the simplest possible solution the idea probably arose in multiple places simultaneously.
My heart tells me that the someone is me. I definitely argued in the first days of the rift for it being a reasonable hypothesis to start with in the absence of data... Which given enough time without debunking eventually ossifies into Fact™️. So... err, I'd like to issue an inherently uncertain sorry for if it was my fault.
Speaking of untraited dragons, I Rift bred an untraited Piscean today. The traditional cycle of excitement of the right egg followed by realisation and disappointment ensued. It feels like the game is laughing at you, hurts a little every time. I'd love to see it changed.
to play obijuan's advocate, he has a point. percentages don't actually matter. whether the underlying rules have changed or not doesn't actually matter. i'd wager that more of us play the game because its fun to breed dragons than because its an interesting exercise in statistical analysis. fun matters. anytime fun seems to be replaced by frustration, that's a potential problem for the game, regardless of what is or isn't causing it. it should be in the game developer's best interests to understand the audience's frustration and try to address it.
but the potential for frustration is baked into any game with a random element, whether its being unable to breed a Dargon or not being able to find a gauss rifle at any of the last hundred markets despite being friendly with the pirates or the sniper in the tiger's den shooting you in the head AGAIN. and "frustration" is so very subjective. some people will get frustrated earlier than others, or not at all. what's a developer to do?
no answers here, sorry, just idle musings. but the suggestion for mystery eggs is a good one. it'll at least get you some interesting things, and take the focus off the terrible breeding odds for a while.
Breeding combination? Sun+Dusk. I was going for Midday. Hail has a 33% potential so repeated Hail hatchings didn’t surprise me.
Thank you.
Sun + Dusk, in the Rift, during the Day.
Chance of Hail (according to the Compendium, and I have no reason to doubt it) is 28.75% The chance of getting it 8 times in a row is 28.75%^8 which is 0.00467% Or approximately 1 in 21,500.
Of course, 8 Storms in a row, is also 0.00467%. I'm sure you'd find either of those as special as the other, so we're at 1 in 10,700. So if you got 100,000 Dragonvale players to breed Sun + Dusk, in the Rift, during the Day, 8 times, 9 of those players should get 8 Hails or Storms in a row.
Is there a way to check how many people are playing Dragonvale?
The point is, 8 Hails (or Storms) in a row will happen all the time.
The rifted part will lower the odds a little, but I'm not sure by how much. It is definitely not 25% chance of getting a non rifted, because I can breed all day without getting a non rifted. And I almost never get 2 non rifted in a row, which should happen 6% of the time (25% of 25%).
to play obijuan's advocate, he has a point. percentages don't actually matter. whether the underlying rules have changed or not doesn't actually matter. i'd wager that more of us play the game because its fun to breed dragons than because its an interesting exercise in statistical analysis. fun matters. anytime fun seems to be replaced by frustration, that's a potential problem for the game, regardless of what is or isn't causing it. it should be in the game developer's best interests to understand the audience's frustration and try to address it.
but the potential for frustration is baked into any game with a random element, whether its being unable to breed a Dargon or not being able to find a gauss rifle at any of the last hundred markets despite being friendly with the pirates or the sniper in the tiger's den shooting you in the head AGAIN. and "frustration" is so very subjective. some people will get frustrated earlier than others, or not at all. what's a developer to do?
no answers here, sorry, just idle musings. but the suggestion for mystery eggs is a good one. it'll at least get you some interesting things, and take the focus off the terrible breeding odds for a while.
These are very good points. But knowing the likelihood of something happening, should temper the frustration in my view. If you think something is a lot more likely (or unlikely) than it is, you are going to reach a frustration point sooner than you should.
Ok…I tried reality, it didn’t work for me….so here’s another bit of hearsay…..
It doesn’t “feel” liike traited versus non-traited is a fixed percentage. I haven’t seen consistent results of traited versus non-traited in the rift. Using the same parents I’ve gotten more of one than the other either way i a breeding session. So I’m guessing they’re using some kind of random number generator.
There’s no such thing as a “random” number. it’s generated from a “seed”. And the programmer can control the resulting “random” number with that “seed”. So what is being used to generate or regenerate the “seed”? If you’re getting a bunch of non-traited, how can you get a new “seed” that may generate more traited results?
We know that higher level dragons give sightly better breeding odds, but that doesn’t change the traited versus non-traited thing. Even Limited dragons with a “locked” breeding pair can be bred in either order. If I’m getting a bunch of non-traited results, I try reversing the order of the breeding pair. That “seems” to work for me…..that or it’s a placebo that just makes me feel better. It doesn’t change the odds of getting my target dragon, but it does seem to change the balance of traited versus non-traited.
Has anyone else tried this, or is it just wishful thinking on my part?
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Oct 2024; taking a break. 🐨 to all. 
