Fletch's Testing of the Flood Gate Theory

[Fletch_smf]

So it has been suggested that percentage success rate of breeding a limited dragon changes over the course of it's release. This was initiated by the LYD release and the belief that it was impossible to breed a second after you had a first during the first few days of it's release. I did not have the test account then, so cannot confirm what BFS might have been doing. But I can test now as I have been graciously given access to an account with unlimited gems from one of the kids at the Wiki Forum.

All my breeding results are posted at w11.zetaboards.com/dragonvale/topic/7700337/1/

This thread will keep a summary of the breeding % over time of the limited dragons.
Pearl Dragon
EBI - 10% - 10/100
2nd June, 8% - 2/25 Snow + Seaweed
6th June, 10.66% - 8/75 Snow + Seaweed

NBC - 3% - 3/100
2nd June, 3% - 3/100 Snow + Seaweed

Emerald Dragon
EBI - 6.8% - 117/1725
18th May, 14% - 7/50 Lichen + Crystal
18th May, 8% - 4/50 Lichen + Crystal (Dunk)
19th May, 8% - 4/50 Lichen + Crystal
19th May, 4% - 3/75 Lichen + Crystal
19th May, 8% - 16/200 Lichen + Crystal (lmw2502)
20th May, 6% - 3/50 Lichen + Crystal
22nd May, 4.66% - 7/150 Lichen + Crystal (Dunk)
23rd May, 6% - 3/50 Lichen + Crystal
24th May, 7.33% - 44/600 Lichen + Crystal (lmw2502)
25th May, 12% - 6/50 Lichen + Crystal
27th May, 6% - 12/200 Lichen + Crystal (Dunk)
27th May, 5.33% - 4/75 Lichen + Crystal
29th May, 6% - 6/100 Lichen + Crystal
31st May, 8% - 4/50 Lichen + Crystal
1st June, 4% - 1/25 Lichen + Crystal

NBC - 4.1% - 49/1200
18th May, 10% - 5/50 Lichen + Crystal
18th May, 2% - 1/50 Lichen + Crystal (Dunk)
19th May, 6% - 3/50 Lichen + Crystal
19th May, 3% - 6/200 Lichen + Crystal (lmw2502)
22nd May, 3.33% - 5/150 Lichen + Crystal (Dunk)
23rd May, 5% - 5/100 Lichen + Crystal
24th May, 3% - 6/200 Lichen + Crystal (lmw2502)
25th May, 6% - 3/50 Lichen + Crystal
27th May, 6% - 12/200 Lichen + Crystal (Dunk)
27th May, 2% - 2/100 Lichen + Crystal
30th May, 2% - 1/50 Lichen + Crystal

---

Butterfly Dragon
EBI
10th May, 16% - 8/50 Air + Firefly
13th May, 18% - 9/50 Willow + Firefly

NBC
10th May, 8% - 2/25 Air + Firefly
10th May, 2% - 1/50 Panlong + Firefly

---

Sakura Dragon
EBI
20th April, 22% - 11/50 Tree + Flower
20th April, 28% - 14/50 Tree + Flower (Dunk's Account)
22nd April, 22% - 11/50 Tree + Flower (Syl's Account)
28th April, 25% - 5/20 Sakura + Flower

NBC
20th April, 10% - 5/50 Tree + Flower
20th April, 6% - 3/50 Tree + Flower (Dunk's Account)

---

Bloom Dragon
EBI
3rd April, 12% - 6/50 Plant + Storm
3rd April, 32% - 16/50 Lichen + Storm (Fletch's Account)
3rd April, 18% - 9/50 Willow + Storm
3rd April, 20% - 5/25 Cactus + Storm
4th April, 20% - 20/100 Flower + Storm (Dunk's Account)
7th April, 18% - 9/50 Lichen + Storm (Dunk's Account)
25th April, 28% - 14/50 Lichen + Storm (Fletch's Account)
25th April, 26% - 13/50 Cactus + Storm
29th April, 28% - 7/25 Lichen + Storm
30th April, 20% - 5/25 Lichen + Storm

NBC
7th April, 16% - 8/50 Lichen + Storm (Dunk's Account)
28th April, 12% - 6/50 Lichen + Storm

[.TommyB.]

Intereting ...

[GT500Girl]

Ok that is some crazy stuff! Thanks for doing this as I have wondered since last year if this was the case....

[Fletch_smf]

It doesn't show anything out of the ordinary at the moment. The occasional blip, but nothing that shows they mess with the odds.

[Fletch_smf]

Okay, having just a done a final? test for Emerald, and getting 1 of those in the 25 attempts, it seems fairly conclusive that they have not increased the odds of getting it now.

It also seems pretty conclusive that the odds for getting it haven't varied over time, and the differences in the various tests are just statistical variance. I'm pretty confident in saying the odds for Emerald are, and always have been, ~ 7% for EBI/EBS and 4% NBC/EBC.

[GT500Girl]

Yikes. I guess this is what we have to look forward to for all of the gem dragons...