TwOpal - Lava: Peanutzmom:) Mud: jayjamie693

[GoldenFire]

Salamander fail.

[peanutzmom:)]

It looks like I have an Opal cooking! Kelthorn, I'm crossing my fingers that it's a twin!

[Kiwichris]

Woohoo! Some koalas escaped
sadly I have another 10.5 hour fail

[echo9]

Kelthorn, you seem to be the common denominator here with rysaroni and Peanutzmom .... So you can't leave us if you get your opal twin!!

[GoldenFire]

Oct 7, 2015 11:54:10 GMT -6 lakes said:

6 hour fail, suspecting mud


The idea of tracking fails now is genius, but we need everyone to report ALL their fails then, otherwise results will be skewed, certainly something to do next month (unless other people hate the idea)
Finally the fails we get can be useful for something

Yes, I would be interested to see if the CoOp performs similarly to the Breeding Cave or Epic Breeding Island in regards to the chance/percentage of receiving the objective target dragon.

[Kelthorn]

We're counting our (dragon) eggs before they've hatched, me thinks.

I want two of them anyway, and the chances of them both being Twopals are slim indeed!

[echo9]

10 hr fail ... Lava!

[GoldenFire]

Oct 7, 2015 22:32:09 GMT -6 Kelthorn said:

We're counting our (dragon) eggs before they've hatched, me thinks.

I want two of them anyway, and the chances of them both being Twopals are slim indeed!

That may be so, but that doesn't mean that we won't hog tie you to keep you around on the off chance that your presence brings in some major koala.     Wait, did I just say that out loud?  Ah hem, what I meant to say was, ah... *motions for someone to get the rope while Kelthorn is distracted* statistics.  Yes, the statistical probability that....

[Kiwichris]

Another 13 hr river fail

[GoldenFire]

Oct 7, 2015 4:10:31 GMT -6 Kiwichris said:

So, as a mathematically/arithmetically challenged person ( unashamedly...finally:) and impressed with that summary, my burning q is; now that we've attained the stat ave; if we continue on w this massed breeding madness, do we get to beat the odds?!?!? And produce koala filled twins for all??? Pleeeeze say yes !

In a way, yes.  If we continue with this massive breeding bombardment then we certainly increase our chances of obtaining an Opal Dragon. 

However, we do not currently know if the CoOp is similar to the Breeding Cave or Breeding Island, or if receiving a twin is a 1 in 3 chance as mentioned previously.  On the other hand, if data was collected during the entire duration of our breeding bombardment then it could be certainly analyzed which may result in an answer (or at least a theory) that could be applied, and hopefully increase our understanding of the CoOp and the probability of twins. 

Our biggest enemy at the moment, however, is the long fails in that they decrease the average number of breeding attempts in a given day.  Due to the limited nature of the Opal Dragon, a decrease in the number of breeding attempts can certainly make it more difficult to obtain given it's rarity (i.e. 3.5% chance of breeding one in Breeding Cave and a 7% chance in the Breeding Island). 

With all that said (and the various digressions aside), the best way to increase one's chances of obtaining a Opal twin is to breed, breed, and breed some more.  I am afraid that our Mud and Lava Dragons will be occupied for the majority of October.  
 

[GoldenFire]

Oct 7, 2015 14:37:12 GMT -6 lakes said:

"Let's make it a 50% chance breed, make it look hideous, no cash income, plant + lightning and 70 hour breeding time "

Shh!  Don't give the wizards any ideas!  *Shudder*  70 hour breeding time?  Oh, please no!

[Kelthorn]

Unless people are very strict about reporting all breeding attempts, it's highly likely that your odds are completely out of whack, and in the wrong direction. Given that we tend to be pretty good at reporting we've gotten a Gemstone (twin or not), but maybe not the failures, you'd have to assume that the 3% chance of getting an Opal is a quite a bit lower than that.

Having said all that, it doesn't really matter. We breed until we get it. The more times you breed, the more chances you've got of getting one.

[angengland]

2, 6 hour fails in a row. One still breeding so twin unknown there.

[Fletch_smf]

Oct 7, 2015 23:37:05 GMT -6 GoldenFire said:

Oct 7, 2015 4:10:31 GMT -6 Kiwichris said:

So, as a mathematically/arithmetically challenged person ( unashamedly...finally:) and impressed with that summary, my burning q is; now that we've attained the stat ave; if we continue on w this massed breeding madness, do we get to beat the odds?!?!? And produce koala filled twins for all??? Pleeeeze say yes !

In a way, yes.  If we continue with this massive breeding bombardment then we certainly increase our chances of obtaining an Opal Dragon. 

However, we do not currently know if the CoOp is similar to the Breeding Cave or Breeding Island, or if receiving a twin is a 1 in 3 chance as mentioned previously.  On the other hand, if data was collected during the entire duration of our breeding bombardment then it could be certainly analyzed which may result in an answer (or at least a theory) that could be applied, and hopefully increase our understanding of the CoOp and the probability of twins. 

Our biggest enemy at the moment, however, is the long fails in that they decrease the average number of breeding attempts in a given day.  Due to the limited nature of the Opal Dragon, a decrease in the number of breeding attempts can certainly make it more difficult to obtain given it's rarity (i.e. 3.5% chance of breeding one in Breeding Cave and a 7% chance in the Breeding Island). 

With all that said (and the various digressions aside), the best way to increase one's chances of obtaining a Opal twin is to breed, breed, and breed some more.  I am afraid that our Mud and Lava Dragons will be occupied for the majority of October.  
 

The problem is, people will stop breeding for the TwOpal when they get it. This will skew the numbers higher than they actually are. You need to commit to a set number of breedings to get something statistically accurate.

[GoldenFire]

Oct 8, 2015 1:05:12 GMT -6 Fletch_smf said:

Oct 7, 2015 23:37:05 GMT -6 GoldenFire said:

In a way, yes.  If we continue with this massive breeding bombardment then we certainly increase our chances of obtaining an Opal Dragon. 

However, we do not currently know if the CoOp is similar to the Breeding Cave or Breeding Island, or if receiving a twin is a 1 in 3 chance as mentioned previously.  On the other hand, if data was collected during the entire duration of our breeding bombardment then it could be certainly analyzed which may result in an answer (or at least a theory) that could be applied, and hopefully increase our understanding of the CoOp and the probability of twins. 

Our biggest enemy at the moment, however, is the long fails in that they decrease the average number of breeding attempts in a given day.  Due to the limited nature of the Opal Dragon, a decrease in the number of breeding attempts can certainly make it more difficult to obtain given it's rarity (i.e. 3.5% chance of breeding one in Breeding Cave and a 7% chance in the Breeding Island). 

With all that said (and the various digressions aside), the best way to increase one's chances of obtaining a Opal twin is to breed, breed, and breed some more.  I am afraid that our Mud and Lava Dragons will be occupied for the majority of October.  
 

The problem is, people will stop breeding for the TwOpal when they get it. This will skew the numbers higher than they actually are. You need to commit to a set number of breedings to get something statistically accurate.

You are absolutely correct, my friend.  In our case, given that there are ten of us actively breeding for a twin Opal at the moment, perhaps fifty (or ideally a hundred) breeding attempts would be a good number to stop at....or perhaps after the first twin Opal is received given that two from our group will exit stage left.  Any thoughts? 

Also, given that not all of the fails were reported, it is safe to say that this month is a bust for any potential analysis, but then there is always next month - which has significantly shorter fail times.  

[lakes]

Given 100 breeds and all is 6 hours fails : 600 hours
For 10 people breeding that is 60 hours, or 2.5 days. I think we can do more than that

And if we assume 1/3 twinstones and 3.5% gemstone those 100 breeds is just 1 twinstones

And this is in terms of fails worst case scenario. I think we can do better than that easily next month

[GoldenFire]

Oct 8, 2015 2:13:43 GMT -6 lakes said:

Given 100 breeds and all is 6 hours fails : 600 hours
For 10 people breeding that is 60 hours, or 2.5 days. I think we can do more than that

And if we assume 1/3 twinstones and 3.5% gemstone those 100 breeds is just 1 twinstones

And this is in terms of fails worst case scenario. I think we can do better than that easily next month

I like it!  Sounds like a plan to me, so if everyone else agrees then it would certainly be something interesting to look forward to next month.  

[lakes]

It will also be some nice data to have it all in the coop cave, as far as I know we do not have very much testing done in it

[GoldenFire]

Oct 8, 2015 2:30:00 GMT -6 lakes said:

It will also be some nice data to have it all in the coop cave, as far as I know we do not have very much testing done in it

Exactly!  

Doing some analysis on the CoOp Cave would be good for all parties involved.  Especially since the DV Sandbox appears to remain silent on the matter... 
  

[Kiwichris]

Without understanding a word, I'm in for next month, simply due to the excitement among the ( poor, benighted) statisticians among us
It's the researcher in me...the grounded theory qualitative researcher, that is

[Fletch_smf]

I'm supposed to update this tomorrow morning, but I start work at 6:30 so there's a good chance I wouldn't be able to before I left. I have changed it now, but really there is 12 hours still owing to Kelthorn and Peanutzmom:) Try and take that into account.

[lakes]

It's failing lava in my park