Your target dragon (Sulfur) will show up only 6% of the time
Gold is a 48h fail but only shows up 2% of the time.
Brass is a 5h fail that shows up 46% of the time.
Forge is a 24h fail that also shows up 46% of the time.
So you fail 94% of the time and 48% of the time those fails are 24+ hours.
By contrast, Brass + Poison works out like this:
You target dragon (Sulfur) will show up only 6% of the time.
Pepper is a 6h fail that will also show up 6% of the time.
Gold is a 48h fail but still only shows up 2% of the time.
Now things change though...
Poison is 30m fail, Flower is a 1h fail, Brass is a 5h fail and Forge is a 24h. They all show up 21.5% of the time.
So while you still fail to get your target dragon 94% of the time, with Brass + Poison only 23.5% of the time will those fails take 24+ hours.
Of course, sometimes short fails work against you, so selecting combos on a case by case basis can help save you some gems...
This is a great scientific explanation, but : chances and luck are two different things. Your "luck" or "absence of luck" can result in multiple long very long fails and no success. I was lucky enough to get sulfur on first try. Considering that such luck will unlikely happen again, i then bought the egg. I saved a pile of gems in doing so.
Small samples can have very skewed results due to chance, which can also be called luck. Some folks win in Vegas some of the time - they're dealing with small sample size. The casinos win all of the time - they're dealing with large sample sizes.
Chance keeps irrational hope alive and it sometimes turns out. Probabilty is what defines it as irrational. I find I usually get more joy out of irrational behavior when playing a game about pixelated dragons.
Me, too! I burned five gems here and five gems there on the last couple of days to speed up breedings, but I tried for that silly dragon in both sites almost nonstop (took one site to try for Aquamarine during the gem re-release) and didn't get even ONE!
GCID- peanutzmom:) And yes, you need to include the smiley face
I give gems randomly to those who seem to need them because I'm not organized enough to keep a list, but I'm always looking for more Party Hat friends!
Susie Spieler and peanutzmom:), I am very sorry that you did not get sprout. I know that is a huge bummer.
I think you should complain to the admins about GregDarcy eating all of the sprouts before they could pop up in your parks. Maybe they will punish him by making him give you each one gem a day until you have sprout. That could wind up being a huge pile of gems.
Last Edit: May 23, 2014 21:26:52 GMT -6 by wapatango
I love my vine dragon avatar created by ElektronX. Now, if only BFS would add it to the game...
DV friend ID: Likylind#5293 Baby park: DORULIND#1400
Susie Spieler and peanutzmom:), I am very sorry that you did not get sprout. I know that is a huge bummer.
I think you should complain to the admins about GregDarcy eating all of the sprouts before they could pop up in your parks. Maybe they will punish him by making him give you each one gem a day until you have sprout. That could wind up being a huge pile of gems.
So that's what happened to them!! I was in the produce section today looking through the kale sprouts thinking that's where they were hiding. All I found were some misplaced soybeans.
I do my share of whining when the dragons are being elusive, but I'm not really one to tattle. If some admins happen to discover unfair practices by certain individuals and convince them to do the right thing that would be quite lovely.
Post by flutterbye on May 24, 2014 14:27:40 GMT -6
I was very lucky and managed to get 2 sprouts in each park. Since the golden hybrids release, I have had no luck at all. Until yesterday, when 2 Nectars showed up in quick succession, and one Sulphur in the other park. I'm now concentrating on Jade in park2, as I started that one well after Jade had left the market. Trying for second Plasma in the cave.
It's a bank holiday weekend here in the UK, I hope all the British contingent have a lovely long weekend. And koala to all forumites in the persuit of your dragons and eggs this weekend.
Kindle park1: nearly all dragons are frolicking in their habitats! (A Thorny little problem to resolve...)
Smartphone park2: Geode, a dragon with rocks in! Still to breed 4 dragons...
I was very lucky and managed to get 2 sprouts in each park. Since the golden hybrids release, I have had no luck at all. Until yesterday, when 2 Nectars showed up in quick succession, and one Sulphur in the other park. I'm now concentrating on Jade in park2, as I started that one well after Jade had left the market. Trying for second Plasma in the cave.
It's a bank holiday weekend here in the UK, I hope all the British contingent have a lovely long weekend. And Koala to all forumites in the persuit of your dragons and eggs this weekend.
And two Wisps in park1 now. And the Dragonarium has a dragon tower now...
Kindle park1: nearly all dragons are frolicking in their habitats! (A Thorny little problem to resolve...)
Smartphone park2: Geode, a dragon with rocks in! Still to breed 4 dragons...
I was very lucky and managed to get 2 sprouts in each park. Since the golden hybrids release, I have had no luck at all. Until yesterday, when 2 Nectars showed up in quick succession, and one Sulphur in the other park. I'm now concentrating on Jade in park2, as I started that one well after Jade had left the market. Trying for second Plasma in the cave.
It's a bank holiday weekend here in the UK, I hope all the British contingent have a lovely long weekend. And Koala to all forumites in the persuit of your dragons and eggs this weekend.
As a Brit myself I would like to wish everyone a great bank holiday weekend, and for some, a lovely half term! The weekend looks pretty dull, renvision galore..... i have got 1 nectar during sprout tryouts. Now a sun/moon/rainbow from trying for emerald! Yay! Hepavent a single 1 of them. But it's a long time to wait, especially with little emerald breeding time left! koala to all
No longer active on DragonVale! *briefly back online*
I got Arctic and Orchid. Now my breeding grounds are respectively dedicated to Nectar and Sulfur, but instead I've been making a killing in Lotus eggs
And I still have a backlog!!!
I had that problem during BeB, when I got 15 Lotus in a row. I managed all the Nectar I needed trying for Sprout. I have one of each of the others, except Sulfur. I'm using combos that will give me other things. Right now I am trying for Mirage and Wisp with Flash and Dark and Orchid, Arctic, and Snow Olys with Sakura and Snow. Only problem is the occasional Epic fail. I am waiting for a 39 hour to finish tonight. Hopefully it will be another Seasonal, I have way too many Rainbow.
Post by tigerstripes on May 27, 2014 2:14:41 GMT -6
Finally got a jade :-) so I've got one of spring, emerald & jade, plus one nectar. Need to decide what to try for next. Been doing plant & dark and got as I don't have any other darks yet and it helps with the dc.
I'm trying to get silver shrines, I know I don't need to as I don't get anything for it really but I started so I'm determined. Just need lots of dc to get food!
Got 2 Jade back-to-back, and other than the permanent new dragons, I now have all the May dragons until Butterfly comes back. So I've been playing with the "random" button in the The Sandbox. Basically, I hit it until a combo shows up with multiple regular hybrids I don't have yet, and then I breed that combo on the island. The cave is still trying to breed for one of the new dragons - haven't had any luck yet with Brass + Poison. Currently breeding Snow with Radiant on the island, and so far I've gotten a Phantom and a Meteor from that combo, both new for me.
Also, wanted to share this little gem I came across. We don't see too much of this on this forum, but I thought others might get a chuckle out of it as I did.
And Shadow, which was eluding me! Oh rulilind, thanks for the double-target idea!
I think I'll have to try that, been breeding for Orchid in park2 since they were released, nada, nowt with 2 level 18 dragons.
It's conceivably the only way of getting around Poppy's law of large numbers. I mean, even granting you chose a combination with only four possibilities, there's no guarantee you'll get one of every four. (Nope, dividing 100 by the number of possibilities doesn't give you probability). So you might as well choose fails with some advantage. Probably because you don't have them, you still haven't got seconds/eggs, and they're not terribly time-consuming with low cash returns.
Now to go for Mirage, which is my second backlog. Who knows? I may even get a Wisp!
I think I'll have to try that, been breeding for Orchid in park2 since they were released, nada, nowt with 2 level 18 dragons.
It's conceivably the only way of getting around Poppy's law of large numbers. I mean, even granting you chose a combination with only four possibilities, there's no guarantee you'll get one of every four. (Nope, dividing 100 by the number of possibilities doesn't give you probability). So you might as well choose fails with some advantage. Probably because you don't have them, you still haven't got seconds/eggs, and they're not terribly time-consuming with low cash returns.
Now to go for Mirage, which is my second backlog. Who knows? I may even get a Wisp!
I switched breeding locations and hey presto! Orchid is brewing, and a possible Arctic, need to double-check the timing, 12h 40mins odd...
Edit: it's not Arctic, but Dodo! Second one, really happy to get that one done. I had Earth and Blizzard in the cave. Need to go find another double combo now...
Last Edit: May 28, 2014 8:24:14 GMT -6 by flutterbye
Kindle park1: nearly all dragons are frolicking in their habitats! (A Thorny little problem to resolve...)
Smartphone park2: Geode, a dragon with rocks in! Still to breed 4 dragons...
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