Wondering whether it is worth leveling those dragon parents to have a better chance at a Limited, Gem or Rare dragon? Testing is ongoing to get the best guess answers to your questions. BFS can make changes with keystrokes at anytime, so the info found here will be to our best knowledge at the moment.
Wow, 19000 attemps and only 160 DR! Good I didn t see this before starting breeding for them, i think I would have given up even trying. IMHO, too much stats kills the hopes. When starting DV, we just had combos to try and didn t bother to know how many chances we had statistically, we got them and were happy. I don t want stats to rule my life, t is just as if I would never go out from home anymore cose the stats say I have a chance in xyz to be involved in an accident. It happens if it has to happen but I live with a free mind.
Wow, 19000 attemps and only 160 DR! Good I didn t see this before starting breeding for them, i think I would have given up even trying. IMHO, too much stats kills the hopes. When starting DV, we just had combos to try and didn t bother to know how many chances we had statistically, we got them and were happy. I don t want stats to rule my life, t is just as if I would never go out from home anymore cose the stats say I have a chance in xyz to be involved in an accident. It happens if it has to happen but I live with a free mind.
The spreadsheet does contain the type of numbers you are talking about, and granted it does take the wind out of the sails to see the small percentages to get a DR.
The purpose of this thread is more along the lines of will it help to level up my Snow and Seaweed dragons to have a better chance at getting a Pearl?
Seems higher level dragons do help when breeding for limited dragons, but more testing is needed to determine how much help it gives as to whether the investment is worth it.
Fletch is much better at explaining and determining results. We'll need his expertise as the testing goes along.
Post by Administrator on Jun 29, 2013 10:57:02 GMT -6
And, while I appreciate the efforts put into testing, I agree with Viviane. The game started out as kind of right brain suspend disbelief magic and with all of the analysis has been transformed into an empirical left brain statistical drill. It used to be so exciting to experiment with combinations and variables. Seaweed first and Firefly second, or Firefly first and Seaweed second? Level 6? Level 10? Level 15? Level 20?
Heck, it was exciting to *discover* the right breeding combination. Now we just wait for the jail breakers to find out and let us know.
We've become a bunch of green shade accountants pushing monkey motion buttons. Analysis may not cause paralysis, but it certainly can drain wonder.
When I was a kid I had a story on a record that had several beginnings, several middles, and several endings. There was no statistical certainty as to which one would play and you never knew how the story would unfold. I loved it. I'd like to see BFS do the same with DV. I'd like them to design uncertainty into the game as opposed to building it as a macro statistical certainty. They could use different statistical programming sets that they would randomly pull in and out on a continuous basis so that you never know with any certainty what's what. Really mess with our minds. It would sure make this forum more interesting:
"Hey guys, Double Rainbows are really hot right now!"
"I can't believe I got a Ghost dragon! I thought they were seasonal."
I don't seek certainty in life and I don't seek it in games. I like risk, not knowing what the outcome will be. I like the joy of success and, probably, the distress that comes with failure. If life was as predicable as DV it would become awfully dull when you've lived as many years as I have.
Poppy
This account was previously Poppy’s account. All posts are by Poppy.
If you’d like to contact adlerist, please use adlerist. Thank you!
And, while I appreciate the efforts put into testing, I agree with Viviane. The game started out as kind of right brain suspend disbelief magic and with all of the analysis has been transformed into an empirical left brain statistical drill. It used to be so exciting to experiment with combinations and variables. Seaweed first and Firefly second, or Firefly first and Seaweed second? Level 6? Level 10? Level 15? Level 20?
Heck, it was exciting to *discover* the right breeding combination. Now we just wait for the jail breakers to find out and let us know.
I've said this in the past, and this is somewhat connected to your "Starting DV Now" thread, but there's no way you could play the game that way now. Before it was a game you could play at home with your family, but now you need the internet communities and people with test accounts to find combinations. You just would not get half the limiteds, and gemstone dragons with one combination would be impossible to get. I think it's part of BFS genius, in that they developed the strategy of the game to make use of the social networking and people with hacked accounts. The game evolved and the play evolved hand in hand. It's pretty sweet when you think about it.
The first lot of testing I did was to put to bed the idea that dragon level or order mattered when breeding dragons. Can you imagine how impossible it would be to find a gem dragon combo if we still believed that right dragon/left dragon or newly hatched dragons were required to get some of these? There is an awe of wonder in ignorance, but there is a greater awe in understanding.
Post by Administrator on Jun 30, 2013 1:56:40 GMT -6
I know, you're right - the game has become too complex to wing it. But the collective discovery phase is always the most fun. Monkey motion rote the least. A lot like building companies... I love buidling a company from an idea - and become quickly bored when it starts to hum along. The technical name for it is ADD I think.
Poppy
This account was previously Poppy’s account. All posts are by Poppy.
If you’d like to contact adlerist, please use adlerist. Thank you!
I know, you're right - the game has become too complex to wing it. But the collective discovery phase is always the most fun. Monkey motion rote the least. A lot like building companies... I love buidling a company from an idea - and become quickly bored when it starts to hum along. The technical name for it is ADD I think.
Poppy
You could always cut yourself off from the forum/wiki/Facebook and any other source of information on the combinations of new dragons. You could go back to the 'discovery phase'.
I know, you're right - the game has become too complex to wing it. But the collective discovery phase is always the most fun. Monkey motion rote the least. A lot like building companies... I love buidling a company from an idea - and become quickly bored when it starts to hum along. The technical name for it is ADD I think.
Poppy
You could always cut yourself off from the forum/wiki/Facebook and any other source of information on the combinations of new dragons. You could go back to the 'discovery phase'.
But as I said, you would have a much smaller chance of getting limiteds with one definite parent, and essentially zero chance of getting gem dragons with a specific parentage. Time/the game has moved on, and there's no going back.
I know, you're right - the game has become too complex to wing it. But the collective discovery phase is always the most fun. Monkey motion rote the least. A lot like building companies... I love buidling a company from an idea - and become quickly bored when it starts to hum along. The technical name for it is ADD I think.
Poppy
You could always cut yourself off from the forum/wiki/Facebook and any other source of information on the combinations of new dragons. You could go back to the 'discovery phase'.
Alas, Fletch is right - you can't put the genie back into the bottle.
Poppy
This account was previously Poppy’s account. All posts are by Poppy.
If you’d like to contact adlerist, please use adlerist. Thank you!
And, while I appreciate the efforts put into testing, I agree with Viviane. The game started out as kind of right brain suspend disbelief magic and with all of the analysis has been transformed into an empirical left brain statistical drill. It used to be so exciting to experiment with combinations and variables. Seaweed first and Firefly second, or Firefly first and Seaweed second? Level 6? Level 10? Level 15? Level 20?
Heck, it was exciting to *discover* the right breeding combination. Now we just wait for the jail breakers to find out and let us know.
We've become a bunch of green shade accountants pushing monkey motion buttons. Analysis may not cause paralysis, but it certainly can drain wonder.
When I was a kid I had a story on a record that had several beginnings, several middles, and several endings. There was no statistical certainty as to which one would play and you never knew how the story would unfold. I loved it. I'd like to see BFS do the same with DV. I'd like them to design uncertainty into the game as opposed to building it as a macro statistical certainty. They could use different statistical programming sets that they would randomly pull in and out on a continuous basis so that you never know with any certainty what's what. Really mess with our minds. It would sure make this forum more interesting:
"Hey guys, Double Rainbows are really hot right now!"
"I can't believe I got a Ghost dragon! I thought they were seasonal."
I don't seek certainty in life and I don't seek it in games. I like risk, not knowing what the outcome will be. I like the joy of success and, probably, the distress that comes with failure. If life was as predicable as DV it would become awfully dull when you've lived as many years as I have.
Poppy
I think it is a combination of the implementation of time limited dragons and the very long times to breed them, that has created a seemingly greater need of the test accounts. (I prefer the term test account over hacked accounts because, as far as I know, everyone who has access to one for testing also has a personal account that is played just like everyone else.)
I am hopeful that BFS, rather than lying to us, is actually unaware that the higher level dragons are not giving the boost they advertised.
Got a hint of that while testing the re-release of the Firework dragon. It came out last year before the promise of better odds with higher level dragons. Level 12 testing showed about what we would expect for a limited dragon. Around the first 500 of the 1,000 attempts of the Level 20 showed a similar percentage as the Level 12. The second half was sharply higher, as was a second run of 1,000 attempts, as though someone had forgotten to up the odds for the Level 20 and fixed the code.
Please note: I didn't intend my comments as a criticism - more as a lament. Things are never as exciting after you figure them out.
Poppy
No problem, made my comment to draw a difference between test accounts and hacked accounts, which in the past have had a bad reputation and can be a source of hot discussion. Aloha!
I am hopeful that BFS, rather than lying to us, is actually unaware that the higher level dragons are not giving the boost they advertised.
Got a hint of that while testing the re-release of the Firework dragon. It came out last year before the promise of better odds with higher level dragons. Level 12 testing showed about what we would expect for a limited dragon. Around the first 500 of the 1,000 attempts of the Level 20 showed a similar percentage as the Level 12. The second half was sharply higher, as was a second run of 1,000 attempts, as though someone had forgotten to up the odds for the Level 20 and fixed the code.
Do you do much gambling? I guess living in Nevada these days makes me acutely aware of the similarities with slots and DV! Many people claim that when a casino brings out a new machine they 'up the odds' for a few days to help get people hooked, then it's payout gets dropped to 'normal' but for a while people will continue to pump money into because it had been paying more often. I suspect there is a like story with short release limited's in this game. I don't do any extra testing myself, but it seems we have a reasonable hypothesis ^ that BF can change the probability post release of a dragon.
I agree also. In that it seems like that's what is happening. Testing does not support the theory, but never let that get in the way of a good superstition. The idea that a casino would up the odds of a popular gaming machine (which by default a new one would be) is probably something the casino would try to make people believe. The reality is, the more people play it, because it is popular, the more it would pay out. This fulfilling the superstition.
I'd say here endeth the lesson, but I'm sure I'll be "teaching" it again soon.
I agree also. In that it seems like that's what is happening. Testing does not support the theory, but never let that get in the way of a good superstition. The idea that a casino would up the odds of a popular gaming machine (which by default a new one would be) is probably something the casino would try to make people believe. The reality is, the more people play it, because it is popular, the more it would pay out. This fulfilling the superstition.
I'd say here endeth the lesson, but I'm sure I'll be "teaching" it again soon.
Absolutely! And here is the ultimate proof by Prof Fletch himself:
I agree also. In that it seems like that's what is happening. Testing does not support the theory, but never let that get in the way of a good superstition. The idea that a casino would up the odds of a popular gaming machine (which by default a new one would be) is probably something the casino would try to make people believe. The reality is, the more people play it, because it is popular, the more it would pay out. This fulfilling the superstition.
I'd say here endeth the lesson, but I'm sure I'll be "teaching" it again soon.
As a computer scientist I usually live by numbers, but getting two Rubys on July 2nd seems to support the "get it while it is new" theory! I am not going to complain.
I agree. We call it having the gates wide open. The idea drives Fletch mad. Which of course most of us enjoy greatly.
Poppy
Such a lovely perk.
GCID *PixieWA*
'... overwhelming goodwill, and witty humour, profound grace and compassion blended with the spice of relentless taunts.'
Note: This is an independent forum and is not affiliated with Deca Games, the developer of DragonVale.
It was created by and is managed by DragonVale fanatics.
All who observe the following brief guidelines are welcome to this great community: no personal attacks & no spam.
I know, you're right - the game has become too complex to wing it. But the collective discovery phase is always the most fun. Monkey motion rote the least. A lot like building companies... I love buidling a company from an idea - and become quickly bored when it starts to hum along. The technical name for it is ADD I think. 
