So I did a bunch of speed up breedings yesterday using the same two dragons (Elder Plant and Co-Op Friend's Level 20 Dartwing) and kept track of the results. 26 breedings yielded 6 Plants, 12 Metals, 4 Malchites, and 4 Ironwoods. While I know the Sandbox odds are not exact, I'm inclined to think this means that when a new dragon is released, regardless of it's "type", it's got incredibly low breeding odds. I'm beginning to wonder if new dragons (released as part of an event) have odds down in the 1% or so level.
This is how it is in co-op in general. The chances of getting either parent dragon from a co-op pairing are greatly reduced compared to normal. As far as I know, it is about a 1% chance.
If you were breeding this same combo in the EBI or BC, you would most likely have several Dartwings by now.
I think 1 percent is very optimistic. I would guess closer to .1 percent. I wouldn't be surprised if I've gotten 100 plant dragons alone trying for dartwing clones. At least those clear quickly..
Post by journeywoman on Jun 21, 2018 18:42:52 GMT -6
Has anyone gotten a rift Solstice? I've been trying in 4 parks breeding for nothing else in the rift for the past several days and have only managed one non-rift Solstice among all of them. :/
I'm beginning to wonder if they inadvertently broke the game in the long run when they added the rift. Once I got used to the idea, I thought it was a nice change to have breeding that gave instant results, and of course there was a lot to do with collecting everything again. Yet the fact remains that for anything that can be bred in the rift, a park with a well-established rift probably gets 12-16 additional breeding attempts per day that they didn't get before, compared to a mere 3-9 in the regular park (based on an average of 1-3 attempts per breeding spot per day in the main park). They HAD to drop the overall breeding odds to compensate for this, otherwise the impact of all those extra attempts would mean that most players would have everything soon after it was released.
The problem is that once most of the low-hanging fruit (i.e. vanilla and golden hybrids and their eggs) has been re-collected, the relentless parade of fails you get when trying for something rare doesn't give you even the occasional bit of progress towards the larger goal. This starts to get awfully discouraging after a while, to breed and breed and breed for days with reduced odds and nothing to show for it. During the last event, I couldn't even get a rift Gold in one park, let alone use it to try for a rift Loot, and even less to use the Loot to try for a Scarab of any sort.
I suppose it's a bit of a toss-up as to whether it's better to be bored because you have nothing you need to try for, or frustrated because you have lots of stuff you need and you rarely get any of it. But even without the accusations of a money-grab on Backflip's part, I'm beginning to wonder if all the time I spend these days managing four parks is worth the (occasional) satisfaction I get from it...
This is how it is in co-op in general. The chances of getting either parent dragon from a co-op pairing are greatly reduced compared to normal. As far as I know, it is about a 1% chance.
If you were breeding this same combo in the EBI or BC, you would most likely have several Dartwings by now.
I think 1 percent is very optimistic. I would guess closer to .1 percent. I wouldn't be surprised if I've gotten 100 plant dragons alone trying for dartwing clones. At least those clear quickly..
I'll give you 0.5% maybe, but I think 0.1% is unrealistically low. Some really quick maths to show you why I think this:
At a 1% chance -- 0.99^100 = 0.366 -- A 36.6% chance of having not successfully cloned after 100 attempts.
At a 0.1% chance -- 0.999^100 = 0.905 -- A 90.5% chance of having not successfully cloned after 100 attempts.
Keep going at 0.1% -- 0.999^1000 = 0.367 -- A 36.7% chance of still not cloning after 1000 attempts!
I'd argue that there's enough reports of success to suggest that it's not quite that low. 1% to 0.5% is where I'd put my guess, but probably dragon dependant as well.
Tangentially related, but I've noticed the Rift has at least a similar parent-cloning odds reduction thing going on for most dragons (which is why it's such a pain to get Rifted pedestals, grumble grumble) but over the times Misfortune has been available I've parent-cloned 26 Apocalypse dragons in the Rift. I'd bet my 4th foot from the left on BFS having forgotten to give it its odds for that scenario and it using some default value somewhere. Wish it was that easy with the others! Not that I've had much time to try for pedestals there recently...
I just don't think we have enough data to see the number of attempts going on to really make a guess on the 1 percent vs .5 vs .1 or even vs .01. To give an example, I'm playing another game where you collect monsters through summoning, and the statistics have finally shown that the rarest have a .5 percent chance of being summoned. You get less summons than you do breeds in dragonvale, yet the forums are full of people posting about getting the rarest things every single day. Based on forums posts, you'd think it was like a 5 percent chance and everyone seems to get them often, it's so easy!
That game has been hooked into data collection sites that show the number really is .5, despite all the posts, by collecting millions of points of data. That's why most of us can play a year and not get one of these. When people get lucky, they post about it. Often they only post when they get lucky and excited about something and it really changes perception for the rest of us, and you start to think you're unlucky, not that others are lucky.
I can believe the DV clones are 1 percent but that would mean that based on my own account, I am unlucky. I've almost never cloned anything I didn't already own, I think it happened once. That is cloning something not breedable, not just getting it with something that is breedable and cloning at the same time with the same combo elements. So I would also believe the .5 percent, and even significantly lower. It would be nice if someone could find a way to hook into this game as they did the other, and really get the numbers.
The problem is that once most of the low-hanging fruit (i.e. vanilla and golden hybrids and their eggs) has been re-collected, the relentless parade of fails you get when trying for something rare doesn't give you even the occasional bit of progress towards the larger goal. This starts to get awfully discouraging after a while, to breed and breed and breed for days with reduced odds and nothing to show for it. During the last event, I couldn't even get a rift Gold in one park, let alone use it to try for a rift Loot, and even less to use the Loot to try for a Scarab of any sort.
While I do agree, I track my rift elements very carefully. That way, I'm still getting new things every day, and I don't feel quite as bad about repeat rift dragons. When I get that trench 'air' rift dragon that I was missing, only having fire, earth, water, and light, it feels good to check that element off my list. I often tick 1 or 2 dragons off a day doing this, despite having all the rift hybrids of some element.
The problem is that once most of the low-hanging fruit (i.e. vanilla and golden hybrids and their eggs) has been re-collected, the relentless parade of fails you get when trying for something rare doesn't give you even the occasional bit of progress towards the larger goal. This starts to get awfully discouraging after a while, to breed and breed and breed for days with reduced odds and nothing to show for it. During the last event, I couldn't even get a rift Gold in one park, let alone use it to try for a rift Loot, and even less to use the Loot to try for a Scarab of any sort.
While I do agree, I track my rift elements very carefully. That way, I'm still getting new things every day, and I don't feel quite as bad about repeat rift dragons. When I get that trench 'air' rift dragon that I was missing, only having fire, earth, water, and light, it feels good to check that element off my list. I often tick 1 or 2 dragons off a day doing this, despite having all the rift hybrids of some element.
How do you track it, though? I knew I was leaving out the rift traits when I wrote that, but I find it rather cumbersome to figure out which elements I need for the various fails to choose the best option, so most of the time I don’t realize that I just got something I needed. The rest of the time, I don’t have any options to choose from since I’m breeding with rares I’ve only gotten once or high-level dragons whose traits are fixed. If they had an easier way to assess the situation (one that didn’t involve me laboriously filling out a spreadsheet for each park), I’d probably be more into it — I’m more than geeky enough to get strategic about that kind of thing.
In my five games, I was able to clone Snowflake 6 in 1 game and Dartwing in my main game with my level 20 Malachite and a friend’s Level 20 Dartwing. Got my second Dartwing from a friend’s Dartwing and my Dartwing, so I have my pedestal but no twin yet. I’m not discouraged because Backflip has given us the ability to buy the dragons before the expire, and they are kindly making sure that the elements for challenges are usually the same as the target dragons this time, so I’ve been able to get 100/200 tickets most every time. I got a rift Solstice in a couple of games, and rift Bearded in a game that didn’t have Bearded. So while individual games aren’t too lucky, overall it’s been a good event for me, and best of all that it hasn’t required hours and hours of my time this vacation.
I'm pretty sure this one neighbor I've got has quit the game... but they've got a level 20 rainbow that's shared in co-op which comes in quite handy. :-P
How do you track it, though? I knew I was leaving out the rift traits when I wrote that, but I find it rather cumbersome to figure out which elements I need for the various fails to choose the best option, so most of the time I don’t realize that I just got something I needed. The rest of the time, I don’t have any options to choose from since I’m breeding with rares I’ve only gotten once or high-level dragons whose traits are fixed. If they had an easier way to assess the situation (one that didn’t involve me laboriously filling out a spreadsheet for each park), I’d probably be more into it — I’m more than geeky enough to get strategic about that kind of thing.
I'm crazy and use a google spreadsheet. I spend as much time building that thing as I do playing, it has data on all dragons, combos, elements, quests, timers, etc. On the owned page, it lists everything with checkboxes lit up for each element if it's riftable, also tracking twins, all egg types, how many of each type are on display in the park or rift, basically everything. I've got pages that generate reports on what rifts I'm missing but are available today (with combos), which twins or twin eggs I'm missing, quick quest reference pages, and much more.
Post by skeeter622 on Jun 23, 2018 10:21:03 GMT -6
I bought dartwing bc after breeding 24/7 and speeding up (wasted soooo many gems) I was tired of pulling my hair out. I cloned him in the coop and think I may have a pedestal.
I bought dartwing bc after breeding 24/7 and speeding up (wasted soooo many gems) I was tired of pulling my hair out. I cloned him in the coop and think I may have a pedestal.
I feel ya. I am breeding for a dartwing in the cave, the island, the coop and the rift. After hundreds and hundreds of plant fails (I have long stopped appreciating their speed of hatching) and after spending probably around 600 gems speeding up the mostly metal fails, after wasting E at an alarming rate, I guess I am going to call it and buy the dragon. There's one in every bunch. And it gets me every time. You think I would just learn. With the exception of the rift, when it goes on for days that I am not getting anywhere in an event trying to breed a dragon, it never ends well. I just don't breed it, it doesn't happen for me. I need to accept that. I need to know when to give up. I would save myself lots of time and effort not to mention gems. And it would bring a bit more fun back into the game if I would just quit playing the same losing hand over and over. I can hear a voice in my head saying "sucker" every time I get caught up in a breeding vortex.
I bought dartwing bc after breeding 24/7 and speeding up (wasted soooo many gems) I was tired of pulling my hair out. I cloned him in the coop and think I may have a pedestal.
I feel ya. I am breeding for a dartwing in the cave, the island, the coop and the rift. After hundreds and hundreds of plant fails (I have long stopped appreciating their speed of hatching) and after spending probably around 600 gems speeding up the mostly metal fails, after wasting E at an alarming rate, I guess I am going to call it and buy the dragon. There's one in every bunch. And it gets me every time. You think I would just learn. With the exception of the rift, when it goes on for days that I am not getting anywhere in an event trying to breed a dragon, it never ends well. I just don't breed it, it doesn't happen for me. I need to accept that. I need to know when to give up. I would save myself lots of time and effort not to mention gems. And it would bring a bit more fun back into the game if I would just quit playing the same losing hand over and over. I can hear a voice in my head saying "sucker" every time I get caught up in a breeding vortex.
I do this too! It seems like when I first began playing, if I sped up a breed it increased my chances of getting the dragon. Maybe I just imagined that:)
I bought dartwing bc after breeding 24/7 and speeding up (wasted soooo many gems) I was tired of pulling my hair out. I cloned him in the coop and think I may have a pedestal.
I feel ya. I am breeding for a dartwing in the cave, the island, the coop and the rift. After hundreds and hundreds of plant fails (I have long stopped appreciating their speed of hatching) and after spending probably around 600 gems speeding up the mostly metal fails, after wasting E at an alarming rate, I guess I am going to call it and buy the dragon. There's one in every bunch. And it gets me every time. You think I would just learn. With the exception of the rift, when it goes on for days that I am not getting anywhere in an event trying to breed a dragon, it never ends well. I just don't breed it, it doesn't happen for me. I need to accept that. I need to know when to give up. I would save myself lots of time and effort not to mention gems. And it would bring a bit more fun back into the game if I would just quit playing the same losing hand over and over. I can hear a voice in my head saying "sucker" every time I get caught up in a breeding vortex.
I really hope you didn't speed breed in all those locations because Dartwing was only available by buying with tickets or cloning via coop cave. 😟
Snowflake 6 has been the only dragon available to solo breed so far of the new event dragons.
I feel ya. I am breeding for a dartwing in the cave, the island, the coop and the rift. After hundreds and hundreds of plant fails (I have long stopped appreciating their speed of hatching) and after spending probably around 600 gems speeding up the mostly metal fails, after wasting E at an alarming rate, I guess I am going to call it and buy the dragon. There's one in every bunch. And it gets me every time. You think I would just learn. With the exception of the rift, when it goes on for days that I am not getting anywhere in an event trying to breed a dragon, it never ends well. I just don't breed it, it doesn't happen for me. I need to accept that. I need to know when to give up. I would save myself lots of time and effort not to mention gems. And it would bring a bit more fun back into the game if I would just quit playing the same losing hand over and over. I can hear a voice in my head saying "sucker" every time I get caught up in a breeding vortex.
I really hope you didn't speed breed in all those locations because Dartwing was only available by buying with tickets or cloning via coop cave. 😟
Snowflake 6 has been the only dragon available to solo breed so far of the new event dragons.
Oh no, don't tell me that. How stupid of me. I did look at the sandbox and when I checked exclude dartwing as a parent and unchecked rift breeding it gave me matches, usually when it's not available for breeding it says cannot breed at this time. I thought I understood that meant it was available to breed. Oh well,that was quite a waste of gems.
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I really hope you didn't speed breed in all those locations because Dartwing was only available by buying with tickets or cloning via coop cave. 😟
Snowflake 6 has been the only dragon available to solo breed so far of the new event dragons.
Oh no, don't tell me that. How stupid of me. I did look at the sandbox and when I checked exclude dartwing as a parent and unchecked rift breeding it gave me matches, usually when it's not available for breeding it says cannot breed at this time. I thought I understood that meant it was available to breed. Oh well,that was quite a waste of gems.
Aarrgghh sympathies!😱 i have found there is sometimes a lag with the sandbox refreshing and recalculating after I change the parameters, so I hit the refresh button to make sure it's showing accurate results...
Oh no, don't tell me that. How stupid of me. I did look at the sandbox and when I checked exclude dartwing as a parent and unchecked rift breeding it gave me matches, usually when it's not available for breeding it says cannot breed at this time. I thought I understood that meant it was available to breed. Oh well,that was quite a waste of gems.
Aarrgghh sympathies!😱 i have found there is sometimes a lag with the sandbox refreshing and recalculating after I change the parameters, so I hit the refresh button to make sure it's showing accurate results...
Ya, I have noticed that. Thanks, I will make sure to watch for that. But really all I had to do was look in the Dragonarium, all would have been made clear then . And really I should know better, it's not exactly my first rodeo. Oh well at least I can still buy the dragon.
Sighs, is it just me or are time-based dragons have a lower chance to breed? I tried the whole period for a Rift Misfortune. I tried setting my Twilight Tower, and trying it at actual night. No dice.
Post by journeywoman on Jun 24, 2018 11:39:04 GMT -6
Doh - the new Sandscale is a rift dragon and can't be cloned OR bred. There's no breeding hint, and the Dragonarium says it can only be bought with tickets.
I feel ya. I am breeding for a dartwing in the cave, the island, the coop and the rift. After hundreds and hundreds of plant fails (I have long stopped appreciating their speed of hatching) and after spending probably around 600 gems speeding up the mostly metal fails, after wasting E at an alarming rate, I guess I am going to call it and buy the dragon. There's one in every bunch. And it gets me every time. You think I would just learn. With the exception of the rift, when it goes on for days that I am not getting anywhere in an event trying to breed a dragon, it never ends well. I just don't breed it, it doesn't happen for me. I need to accept that. I need to know when to give up. I would save myself lots of time and effort not to mention gems. And it would bring a bit more fun back into the game if I would just quit playing the same losing hand over and over. I can hear a voice in my head saying "sucker" every time I get caught up in a breeding vortex.
I really hope you didn't speed breed in all those locations because Dartwing was only available by buying with tickets or cloning via coop cave. 😟
Snowflake 6 has been the only dragon available to solo breed so far of the new event dragons.
Doh - the new Sandscale is a rift dragon and can't be cloned OR bred. There's no breeding hint, and the Dragonarium says it can only be bought with tickets.
Doh - the new Sandscale is a rift dragon and can't be cloned OR bred. There's no breeding hint, and the Dragonarium says it can only be bought with tickets.
If you notice though...it is not limited. 😃
I just bought a Sandscale with tickets and it does have a blue hourglass. :-(
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This is how it is in co-op in general. The chances of getting either parent dragon from a co-op pairing are greatly reduced compared to normal. As far as I know, it is about a 1% chance.So I did a bunch of speed up breedings yesterday using the same two dragons (Elder Plant and Co-Op Friend's Level 20 Dartwing) and kept track of the results. 26 breedings yielded 6 Plants, 12 Metals, 4 Malchites, and 4 Ironwoods. While I know the Sandbox odds are not exact, I'm inclined to think this means that when a new dragon is released, regardless of it's "type", it's got incredibly low breeding odds. I'm beginning to wonder if new dragons (released as part of an event) have odds down in the 1% or so level.
I think 1 percent is very optimistic. I would guess closer to .1 percent. I wouldn't be surprised if I've gotten 100 plant dragons alone trying for dartwing clones. At least those clear quickly..This is how it is in co-op in general. The chances of getting either parent dragon from a co-op pairing are greatly reduced compared to normal. As far as I know, it is about a 1% chance.
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I feel ya. I am breeding for a dartwing in the cave, the island, the coop and the rift. After hundreds and hundreds of plant fails (I have long stopped appreciating their speed of hatching) and after spending probably around 600 gems speeding up the mostly metal fails, after wasting E at an alarming rate, I guess I am going to call it and buy the dragon. There's one in every bunch. And it gets me every time. You think I would just learn. With the exception of the rift, when it goes on for days that I am not getting anywhere in an event trying to breed a dragon, it never ends well. I just don't breed it, it doesn't happen for me. I need to accept that. I need to know when to give up. I would save myself lots of time and effort not to mention gems. And it would bring a bit more fun back into the game if I would just quit playing the same losing hand over and over. I can hear a voice in my head saying "sucker" every time I get caught up in a breeding vortex. I bought dartwing bc after breeding 24/7 and speeding up (wasted soooo many gems) I was tired of pulling my hair out. I cloned him in the coop and think I may have a pedestal. 
I really hope you didn't speed breed in all those locations because Dartwing was only available by buying with tickets or cloning via coop cave. 😟I feel ya. I am breeding for a dartwing in the cave, the island, the coop and the rift. After hundreds and hundreds of plant fails (I have long stopped appreciating their speed of hatching) and after spending probably around 600 gems speeding up the mostly metal fails, after wasting E at an alarming rate, I guess I am going to call it and buy the dragon. There's one in every bunch. And it gets me every time. You think I would just learn. With the exception of the rift, when it goes on for days that I am not getting anywhere in an event trying to breed a dragon, it never ends well. I just don't breed it, it doesn't happen for me. I need to accept that. I need to know when to give up. I would save myself lots of time and effort not to mention gems. And it would bring a bit more fun back into the game if I would just quit playing the same losing hand over and over. I can hear a voice in my head saying "sucker" every time I get caught up in a breeding vortex. 
Oct 2024; taking a break. 🐨 to all. 
There's no breeding hint, and the Dragonarium says it can only be bought with tickets.
