The Snooz dragon has a 10% cloning chance in the CBC, and adds all 10 elements into the mix when trying to clone it. If people want to track their attempts we might be able to shine some light on whether the 10% is affected, or not, by the overall set percentages of all the possible dragons.
I got so many Snoozes so quickly that I soon had small army of twins. So I decided to move on (for now) to Wolper and Peoni with the much lower 1.5% cloning chances. (I.e. the 10% for Snooz did not get reduced). Here are my results for Poison(4/20)+Wolper(20) in the Social Cave. Poison is always the 'local' dragon.
With the lower level Poison:
Poison(4)+Wolper(20)
#
%
Wolper
2
1.1%
Poison
30
16%
Hybrids (excl. Poison)
73
39%
« average 3.6%
Rares (all odds)*
78
42%
« average 4.2%
Epics
2
1.1%
total
185
*Two of the rare dragons have odds lower than the usual 5%. The average is 4.60%.
With the higher level Poison:
Poison(20)+Wolper(20)
#
%
Wolper
3
1.5%
Poison
27
14%
Hybrids (excl. Poison)
79
40%
« average 3.6%
Rares (all odds)*
84
43%
« average 4.3%
Epics
4
2.0%
total
197
*Two of the rare dragons have odds lower than the usual 5%. The average is 4.60%.
Combined:
Poison+Wolper(20)
#
%
Projected...?
Wolper
5
1.3%
1.5%
Poison
57
15%
x + 10%
Hybrids (excl. Poison)
152
40%
« average 3.6%
11x
Rares
5%
142
37%
« average 4.6%
40%
4%
15
3.9%
4%
2%
5
1.3%
2%
Epics
6
1.6%
1.5%
total
382
12x + 59% = 100%
=> x = 3.4%
The numbers are close to what can be projected if the given odds are taken at face value. It doesn't seem like any group of results (e.g. hybrids) are being suppressed to a significant degree.
The Snooz dragon has a 10% cloning chance in the CBC, and adds all 10 elements into the mix when trying to clone it. If people want to track their attempts we might be able to shine some light on whether the 10% is affected, or not, by the overall set percentages of all the possible dragons.
I got so many Snoozes so quickly that I soon had small army of twins. So I decided to move on (for now) to Wolper and Peoni with the much lower 1.5% cloning chances. (I.e. the 10% for Snooz did not get reduced). Here are my results for Poison(4/20)+Wolper(20) in the Social Cave. Poison is always the 'local' dragon.
With the lower level Poison:
Poison(4)+Wolper(20)
#
%
Wolper
2
1.1%
Poison
30
16%
Hybrids (excl. Poison)
73
39%
« average 3.6%
Rares (all odds)*
78
42%
« average 4.2%
Epics
2
1.1%
total
185
*Two of the rare dragons have odds lower than the usual 5%. The average is 4.60%.
With the higher level Poison:
Poison(20)+Wolper(20)
#
%
Wolper
3
1.5%
Poison
27
14%
Hybrids (excl. Poison)
79
40%
« average 3.6%
Rares (all odds)*
84
43%
« average 4.3%
Epics
4
2.0%
total
197
*Two of the rare dragons have odds lower than the usual 5%. The average is 4.60%.
Combined:
Poison+Wolper(20)
#
%
Projected...?
Wolper
5
1.3%
1.5%
Poison
57
15%
x + 10%
Hybrids (excl. Poison)
152
40%
« average 3.6%
11x
Rares
5%
142
37%
« average 4.6%
40%
4%
15
3.9%
4%
2%
5
1.3%
2%
Epics
6
1.6%
1.5%
total
382
12x + 59% = 100%
=> x = 3.4%
The numbers are close to what can be projected if the given odds are taken at face value. It doesn't seem like any group of results (e.g. hybrids) are being suppressed to a significant degree.
Wolper have less than 100% for set breeding. So nothing should be suppressed at this point. Rares should have 5% chance (save for those exceptions), and Regulars should have 3.8% chance.
Last Edit: Mar 23, 2021 0:03:28 GMT -6 by Fletch_smf
Wolper have less than 100% for set breeding. So nothing should be suppressed at this point. Rares should have 5% chance (save for those exceptions), and Regulars should have 3.8% chance.
Yes, it's according to expectation.
This is minor, but in your Wolper+Poison calculation you seem to have forgotten Poshwing (2%). And I have Smoulderbrush at 4%, not 1.5%. That's why I get 3.4% for the regular hybrids instead of your 3.8% chance.
This is minor, but in your Wolper+Poison calculation you seem to have forgotten Poshwing (2%). And I have Smoulderbrush at 4%, not 1.5%. That's why I get 3.4% for the regular hybrids instead of your 3.8% chance.
Thanks for that. Poshwing did not appear as a result in the sandbox when using those elements. And Smoulderbrush has 2 breeding chances listed. 4% and 1.25%. The 1.25% might be for the prerelease.
This is minor, but in your Wolper+Poison calculation you seem to have forgotten Poshwing (2%). And I have Smoulderbrush at 4%, not 1.5%. That's why I get 3.4% for the regular hybrids instead of your 3.8% chance.
Thanks for that. Poshwing did not appear as a result in the sandbox when using those elements. And Smoulderbrush has 2 breeding chances listed. 4% and 1.25%. The 1.25% might be for the prerelease.
Smoulderbrush is a 4%, but anytime the Valentines 2019 event is active, it has a 1.25% chance. Which means most likely it's 4% always, going forward.
Thanks for that. Poshwing did not appear as a result in the sandbox when using those elements. And Smoulderbrush has 2 breeding chances listed. 4% and 1.25%. The 1.25% might be for the prerelease.
Yes, I suspected the sandbox was the culprit because I used it myself. Apparently Poshwing's parameter for availability is set to the wrong value ("no") when it should be "permanent".
One very important question we need to work out is how are cloning results impacted when the result sets are large. Something with my data led me to believe the cloning results are checked first, regardless of the number of results. But now I'm second guessing that assumption, and I'd love to get a clear answer. Unfortunately none of my alt parks have the perfect dragon to test this result: Embossed.
Embossed has a 30% single parent clone chance, while two Embossed parent chances are not listed. That's in the rift and in normal caves, NOT in social.
(...) Embossed + Rainbow has so many results that the percentages sum up to 480+%. If the cloning is impacted, then I would expect to get Embossed around 6% of the time. If it's not, we'd see it around 30% of the time. It shouldn't take very many test runs to quickly see this pattern.
I think this should be enough to conclude that the 30% single parent cloning chance for Embossed doesn't get reduced to 6%, no?
Normal CAVE Embossed(20)+rainbow*: 29 of 91 = 32%
ISLAND Embossed(20)+rainbow*: 27 of 88 = 31%
RUNIC CAVES: Embossed(20)+rainbow*: 59 of 200 = 32%
*rainbow = any rainbow dragon with all the elements.
BTW, I have Embossed in the rift now in the five ekstra parks I've been using for this test.
Do we have any reason to think that the clone percent does not "stay firm" in the CBC when breeding? Do we have any reason to think that the clone percent does "stay firm" in the CBC when breeding? I mean apart from the fact that we think breeding works the same across all caves, with a possible boost to some breeding results at the Breeding Island?
Do we have any reason to think that the clone percent does not "stay firm" in the CBC when breeding?
Do we have any reason to think that the clone percent does "stay firm" in the CBC when breeding?
This is my preferred way of phrasing it: I have seen nothing to suggest the odds of cloning in the CBC ever get reduced below the stated values. I have seen a few things to suggest certain factors can sometimes improve the odds a little bit. I'm still in the process of investigating.
I have more alt parks than I dare to admit, and I have systematically been trying to get twins for my main park by cloning or breeding from my alt parks. (Because lockdown and no twin weekend for a year and a half...). My impression was always that the given odds could be taken more or less at face value. Since the middle of the Valentine's event I have been logging all my results from the CBC, which so far confirms my impression. If the given odds are 10% then I see close to 10% (not 4%, not 40%); if the given odds are 1.5% then I certainly don't see 10%. Cf. Wolper+Poison above, and some of the other results I have shared here. I typically breed 100-400 times (that is until I get my two twins) so it's not sufficient to determine the odds with absolute certainty. But the results are pointing in the same direction.
Do we have any reason to think that the clone percent does not "stay firm" in the CBC when breeding?
Do we have any reason to think that the clone percent does "stay firm" in the CBC when breeding?
This is my preferred way of phrasing it: I have seen nothing to suggest the odds of cloning in the CBC ever get reduced below the stated values. I have seen a few things to suggest certain factors can sometimes improve the odds a little bit. I'm still in the process of investigating.
I have more alt parks than I dare to admit, and I have systematically been trying to get twins for my main park by cloning or breeding from my alt parks. (Because lockdown and no twin weekend for a year and a half...). My impression was always that the given odds could be taken more or less at face value. Since the middle of the Valentine's event I have been logging all my results from the CBC, which so far confirms my impression. If the given odds are 10% then I see close to 10% (not 4%, not 40%); if the given odds are 1.5% then I certainly don't see 10%. Cf. Wolper+Poison above, and some of the other results I have shared here. I typically breed 100-400 times (that is until I get my two twins) so it's not sufficient to determine the odds with absolute certainty. But the results are pointing in the same direction.
Thanks for that. I’m going to adjust the formulas in my spreadsheet to keep the clone % as set.
Just to confirm, you have Snooz cloning at about 10%?
Edit: and Poison at 10%, if you were using that to clone?
Last Edit: Mar 30, 2021 20:58:40 GMT -6 by Fletch_smf
Thanks for that. I’m going to adjust the formulas in my spreadsheet to keep the clone % as set.
Just to confirm, you have Snooz cloning at about 10%?
Edit: and Poison at 10%, if you were using that to clone?
Poison (and Cactus): Yes, I get 10% plus the "hybrid fraction".
Narcis: 13 of 109 = 12% Kroki: 23 of 180 = 13%
Snooz: I didn't do a full test on a Snooz, so I can only answer this qualitatively. After easily getting it for my main park, I started a round of cloning attempts in my extra parks, and I could tell from the timer and "avatar sneak peek" that I got 6-7 Snooz'es in 20-25 tries. But I don't actually log the results until the breed is done. Otherwise I would never be able to keep track of what I've already logged and not. And one day later when I went back to check the results, I'd already gotten a Snooz twin from a friend, and the first Snooz breed in my alt parks was also a twin. So I decided not to continue and work on Wolper and Peoni instead. But I believe (even if it's mostly from conjecture) that the odds stay around 10%. I'm happy to test this properly at some point.
Quick question. What are "Chance 1", "Chance 2", and "Chance 3"?
The presumption is that "Chance 1" is the default chance of breeding the dragon, if the other values are undefined (as they are for most dragons), regardless of how many (if any) of the dragon you already own. If "Chance 2" is defined, then it's believed to be the breeding chance if you already own one (1) of the dragon. "Chance 3" is for when you have two or more.
I wanted to compare Sandstorm, Plant, and Daylily as cloning partners with Kroki. The goal was to see if the Daylily+Kroki pair indeed had the combined odds of breeding (4.5%) and cloning (10%) at the same time, i.e. 14.5%. I also wanted to see how the percentage of hybrids vs. rare dragons behaved. It was perhaps a bit too ambitious to do three tests at once, and especially for Sandstorm the total numbers is a bit small. So keep that in mind. The bulk of this experiment was done before Motley and Dargon were released. I got one or two towards the end, which I decided to ignore entirely. I haven't included their breeding percentages in the calculations.
Sandstorm(16)+Kroki(20)
Observed
Expected...?
Kroki
5
10%
10%
Hybrids
15
31%
19%
« obs/exp ratio 1.7
Rares (incl. Sandstorm)
25
55%
68%
« obs/exp ratio 0.8
Epics
2
4%
3.5%
total
49
Plant(16)+Kroki(20)
Observed
Expected...?
Kroki
15
17%
10%
Hybrids
26
29%
23%
« obs/exp ratio 1.3
Rares
46
52%
64%
« obs/exp ratio 0.8
Epics
2
2%
3.5%
total
89
Daylily(16)+Kroki(20)
Observed
Expected...?
Kroki
19
16%
14.5%
Hybrids
32
27%
14.5%
« obs/exp ratio 1.9
Rares (incl. Daylily)
62
53%
67.5%
« obs/exp ratio 0.8
Epics
4
3%
3.5%
total
117
The Kroki percentage is according to expectation for Sandstorm+Kroki (10%) and Daylily+Kroki (16% vs. 14.5%). With respect to Plant+Kroki, I think the better-than-expected percentage has to do with Plant being a non-cloneable parent. Sandstorm and Daylily as parents take up 9% and 8.5% respectively, and that has to go towards something else. But what I find most interesting is that there is definitely some downscaling of the rare dragons' odds, even though the total fixed percentage is not above 100% (it's around 80%). The ratio (observed vs. expected) for the rare dragons is nearly the same (0.8) in all three cases. I'm currently in the process of testing cloning with Florea (which has the same elements as Kroki), and I'm also seeing the ca. 0.8 ratio there (with 144 breeds so far).
Quick question. What are "Chance 1", "Chance 2", and "Chance 3"?
The presumption is that "Chance 1" is the default chance of breeding the dragon, if the other values are undefined (as they are for most dragons), regardless of how many (if any) of the dragon you already own. If "Chance 2" is defined, then it's believed to be the breeding chance if you already own one (1) of the dragon. "Chance 3" is for when you have two or more.
...Really? Sure that can't be the reason why I'm still having a difficult time breeding traited versions of dragons I already have with the hint... (Rhinotorch, Pond and Dittoglide are the main culprits right now...)
Also, 0.50 chance of breeding an Embossed with the hint?! It's a total miracle that I've got a traited Embossed on the very first day it was released.
Is the spreadsheet going to be updated with the dragons released in 2020?
The presumption is that "Chance 1" is the default chance of breeding the dragon, if the other values are undefined (as they are for most dragons), regardless of how many (if any) of the dragon you already own. If "Chance 2" is defined, then it's believed to be the breeding chance if you already own one (1) of the dragon. "Chance 3" is for when you have two or more.
...Really? Sure that can't be the reason why I'm still having a difficult time breeding traited versions of dragons I already have with the hint... (Rhinotorch, Pond and Dittoglide are the main culprits right now...)
Also, 0.50 chance of breeding an Embossed with the hint?! It's a total miracle that I've got a traited Embossed on the very first day it was released.
Is the spreadsheet going to be updated with the dragons released in 2020?
Only a handful of dragons have secondary and tertiary breeding chances. Rhinotorch, Pond, and Dittoglide don't, so their first (and only) breeding chance applies regardless of how many you own.
Not sure what you mean by 'with the hint'?
The spreadsheet - I don't know who's maintaining it.
I'm waking up this old thread and am going to ask for additional help. I have a new DV project that's using everything we've learned over the years here, and I will make it available to everyone soon. As you can guess from this topic, it deals with breeding odds. It will be a true breeding simulator, available to everyone, once completed. It's already in an early beta stage and many of the mods are helping test it.
I've realized that despite all our testing, there's still a few numbers we don't know. Without putting it together like this, I wasn't exactly clear on what else needed to be learned at the time.
There are some dragons that have single parent cloning numbers, but no double parent cloning numbers. And then there are dragons that have double parent cloning odds, but not single. I need to have both tested to get some of the final numbers for the new simulator.
Embossed has a 30 percent cloning chance in rift and normal caves with 1 parent, but doesn't have numbers for 2 parents (Embossed + Embossed) in some caves. I need results of Embossed x 2 in in caves other than Social.
Thistle has double parent breeding odds of 10 in social, and 30 in rift and normal caves, but no odds for just 1 parent. I need thistle x plant or thistle x lightning tests in any cave, just let me know which cave.
Any help would be appreciated and will help finish this project. So Embossed x2 or Thistle with a primary plant or lightning.
Thanks!
Edit: Harvest Moon x2 or Djinni x2 would also work if you don't have Embossed x2.
I had 3 alts, 2 had thistle in the rift and on the 3rd I was able to clone embossed in the runic cave and get 2 in the rift to test.
For Embossed, I got 5 Embossed on 12 tries, which is about 40%. It's such a small sample that it could be off by 20+%, but I have a theory. Since Embossed has a single parent at 30%, my guess is that with no data on double parents, it uses the single parent breed chance and gives 30% with both. The numbers so far could match that, but need more data first. If you use Harvest Moon or Djinni, it's 5% for single parent. This would be a great test just to see if you see very few (like 5%) or if there's a higher default number such as 30% - which we're seeing with Embossed. This will quickly tell us if it uses the single parent number or a default. I don't have any alt parks with these 2 dragons in the rift.
Thisle is the opposite test, and I ran 25 attempts. First was 0 of 12, second was 4 of 13 for a total of 4 for 25. Thistle is a 30% chance with both parents as Thistle, a 5% breeding chance with just the elements, and no defined number for just 1 parent. On the small sample, first park was 0%, second was 30% and combined it's 16%. Def want more numbers here, I'll be able to run about 20 a day. The first park leads me to believe the chance is 0 (and we missed the 5% breed). Second park makes me think it maybe gets the 30% from dual parents. And combined, that there's maybe a 10% default. This is why you need lots of numbers for a test, and this will be very interesting.
Thisle is the opposite test, and I ran 25 attempts. First was 0 of 12, second was 4 of 13 for a total of 4 for 25. Thistle is a 30% chance with both parents as Thistle, a 5% breeding chance with just the elements, and no defined number for just 1 parent. On the small sample, first park was 0%, second was 30% and combined it's 16%. Def want more numbers here, I'll be able to run about 20 a day. The first park leads me to believe the chance is 0 (and we missed the 5% breed). Second park makes me think it maybe gets the 30% from dual parents. And combined, that there's maybe a 10% default. This is why you need lots of numbers for a test, and this will be very interesting.
Ivy is double the 5% we would expect. Could be small sample. But could be a boost from Epic Island and/or Plant Elder? If so, this could be messing with the numbers for Thistle. Would be interested to know what your Ivy results were as well.
Maybe I should do some level 4 plant in the normal breeding cave to see what we get.
Again, maybe Reindeer is bumped due to the EBI, which means maybe Harvest Moon is as well. But only if the EBI bumps cloning, because there is no breeding chance, unlike the Thistle.
The other results were 1 Mountain dragon, and the reset were low numbers of Golden Hybrids/Opposite dragons.
Adding in my Thistle attempts, we're at 17 of 132, which is 12.9%. While we can't prove it without more numbers, I'm starting to lean towards 15% default for single parent cloning, and 30% for default for double parent cloning. I can start with that and it's easy enough to adjust as we get more data.
Edit: I forgot about the 5% base chance for Thistle. That would put it closer to 10% and not 15% for single parent cloning with no value. Another dragon with similar numbers, where it has no single chance (blank) but has a double parent chance of 30 is Serket. Since Serket + Plant can only return Serkets if cloned, this would also be a good test instead of Thistle. Either helps.
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