I'm trying to work out some of the basic numbers behind Dragonvale breeding, but I believe as a community that we can come up with cloning chances and basic hybrid vs golden hybrid chances on various breeds. What we need is numbers, small statistics don't prove anything but if we can get 1000s of results for a breed that only has 4-6 outcomes, we can pretty much nail down the percent chances and get a real understanding of how the game works. We could even move on to some more complex breeds once we have the basics.
I have several alt accounts that I don't play regularly, I only send gems from them and use them to try to get new rare dragons that I can clone from my main. I'm going to use these accounts to do the above testing for a while, and I would love to gather numbers from anyone else here that's willing to run these tests on a fairly idle account too.
The first test will be really simple, Poison + Poison in the rift. I wanted to try it with one Pepper to see golden hybrid cloning too, but couldn't get one yesterday on any of my alts and figure others with fairly empty rifts would have the same problem too. If you're going to help test, just keep a Pepper if you pull one because that will be the next test! I'll start my runs at the reset today.
If you want to help, breed Poison + Poison in the rift as many times as you're willing, and post how many of the following dragons you received and I'll keep a running total here. I'm using two level 10 dragons, so do that if possible but if not, post the levels of the dragons too as we know levels may effect rarities.
I also need to know if a water trait or an air trait was available during the breed (from the rift daily trait, or from either dragon).
I'm tracking all the data in a spreadsheet, and will post the results here in a few days.
In an unused park. Had to breed second poison. 12 breeds Park level 87. Both poisons level 10 Dragon Count ------ ----- Poison 6 Flower 5 Smoulderbrush 0 Pepper 1 Kampos 0 Plumewing 0
Thanks! We should get some numbers pretty quickly on cloning chances, at least for these basic hybrids, by just comparing Poison to Flower. With just a few data points, it looks like it is almost doubling it. Really won't have a full picture until the numbers get much, much higher.
I just discovered a problem with my testing, I had thrown Kampos and Plumewing out there as possible results, but they only appear when you include water or air as a rift trait in the breed. Some of my parks were using air/water versions, some were not, and that changes the output results. If one of my theories is correct, it might change it a lot.
Going to restart tests with 2 poisons that do not have water or air traits or park alignment that way.
Sorry did not see the message about traits until now Both poison traited fire Dragon Count ------ ----- Poison 9 Flower 3 Smoulderbrush 1 Pepper 1 Kampos 0 Plumewing 0
I reran tests today in all my parks, and this time tracked which ones had water and air in the results. Putting everything in a google doc, and will post results here every few days.
Rift aligned to plant Level 88. Both poison fire trained. Dragon Count ------ ----- Poison 8 - 6 T / 2 not Flower 4 - 3 T / 1 not Smoulderbrush 0 Pepper 2 - 1 T / 1 not
I've updated the OP with the current numbers saved after the air/water trait change. I'm actually tracking air/water/both separately, but putting the results up combined in a summary just to make it simpler to show here. One of my theories is that adding air/water traits will significantly drop the pepper/smoulderbrush results when it adds in Nimbus or Kampos. We'll see after a lot more numbers come in.
It's taking me a while to get all the accounts setup so I can do this really well. I want a water and air trait poison dragon in each, so that I can use the dragon to match the rift alignment if they're water or air. Probably don't need to do this, but I want the numbers accurate as possible.
Rift aligned to fire Level 88. Both poison fire trained. Dragon Count ------ ----- Poison 6 - 6 T / 0 not Flower 3 - 3 T / 0 not Smoulderbrush 1 not Pepper 2 - 1 T / 1 not
Let me know if you want me to make changes. This park is only for this testing. I'm only going to feed the rifties to collect more E, I'm running out
Last Edit: May 11, 2019 22:25:35 GMT -6 by theresa
Thanks Teresa, this is very useful. If you need to cut back on breeds to save on Etherium per day, that's fine too. Any help at all testing is appreciated from anyone. I plan to get doing this for quite a while myself, I want to have very large data sets to show cloning, hybrid, and rare hybrid odds. And one of my models on how I believe it works has the pepper/smoulder rates dropping significantly when you add water/air traits for the Nimbus/Kampos. The early testing before and after are starting to show that, but I really won't know until I have 100s more, if not a 1000+ points of data.
I wish I could help as this is very interesting, but keeping up with one park and on occasions dragon sitting for family members is quite enough time consuming.
I also think there might be other factors at play though. Dragon park levels/ if you speed breed and use a lot of gems / if you have or haven’t spent money / time spent playing the game / I have long suspected some or all of these may affect the overall “luck” of your game based on mine and our family accounts.
Example: I spend the most time on my game, am maxed out in levels and have spent real money in the past. I try in the rift every day for Rigel and the new one Pearlescent going through the 10,000 e breeds...with nothing to show for it. A family member who hasn’t played for a week gets on last night and within 3 breeds has Rigel. And this kind of thing happens all the time. We already know you are tagged for spending money and lose visions, I think there are many other tags that the game uses to affect breeding outcomes/luck/rng...or I may just be paranoid. 😜
We do know there are other factors, and those ones will be much harder to determine without a major group effort from the community at large. We know dragon levels change the odds, unless it's a placebo and they just tell us it does. We know that the epic breeding cave increases the rarity odds too. That's why in the above test, I'm trying to limit those changes by running level 10 dragons in the same rift cave. Maybe the next test would be to run level 20 rift poisons and see the difference from levels, but I'm not sure my alt accounts can support a level 20 rift dragon.
While it is possible that other factors impact the breeding chances, I don't believe that is the case. The general rule is that the simplest explanation is usually correct, and adding in all these other factors just adds complexity to their breeding code and trying to manage the rarities of each dragon. For example, I threw out some numbers earlier based on a guess with the Rigel rarity, and I still stand by those results. I've bred through 20k every day, 2-4 breeds at that level too, and I'm not getting one. If the odds were .5 percent or so, then only about half the people doing what I'm doing would get one and I called the wrong side of the coin flip.
But even at .5 percent, 1 out of every 5 players will get a Rigel just doing 6 breeds per day for 7 days. That's just the way the odds work, so it's not uncommon for you to spend millions of Etherium and get nothing, while a family member spends almost nothing and gets one. We look for patterns when patterns don't exist, that's just human nature. We do that with everything in life. When I sit on one side of the couch, my favorite football team wins. On the other, they lose. I know I can't impact the outcome of the game. But that doesn't stop me from sitting on the right side.
My husband had stopped playing (too many crashes for him on an iphone 6 plus and an ipad air). So I am using his 2 parks to try to help out. Both parks are at Level 125. Did 6 breeds in each park.
Ist park: forgot to look at the levels of the Poisons Pepper1 Flower 2 Poison 3 (1 non rift).
2nd park: Poison at levels 17 and 11 Flower 3 Poison 3 (1 non rift)
I will do more in the days to come. I can just switch parks when I am playing so not that difficult. Hope this helps a bit.
Example: I spend the most time on my game, am maxed out in levels and have spent real money in the past. I try in the rift every day for Rigel and the new one Pearlescent going through the 10,000 e breeds...with nothing to show for it. A family member who hasn’t played for a week gets on last night and within 3 breeds has Rigel. And this kind of thing happens all the time. We already know you are tagged for spending money and lose visions, I think there are many other tags that the game uses to affect breeding outcomes/luck/rng...or I may just be paranoid. 😜
I wouldn't be surprised if this sort of thing actually factors into what type of dragon we get.
As an example, I stopped playing for five months, came back and managed to breed Smolderbrush and Fever right away. Now that I'm back to playing every day, I haven't been able to breed anything good. I just keep trying for Bonescale, Silverline and Brilliant, day after day, with no positive results.
I've only got one park and a seriously underdeveloped Rift, but I do have a pair of Poison dragons bouncing around. I'm curious about giving this a try just to see the results. They both have Rift traits though. Air and Water, I think. And I'll need to feed them up a bit first. But yeah, might give this a go and see what happens out of curiosity. ☺
Last Edit: May 12, 2019 16:24:24 GMT -6 by DragonMoonX
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My husband had stopped playing (too many crashes for him on an iphone 6 plus and an ipad air). So I am using his 2 parks to try to help out. Both parks are at Level 125. Did 6 breeds in each park.
Ist park: forgot to look at the levels of the Poisons Pepper1 Flower 2 Poison 3 (1 non rift).
2nd park: Poison at levels 17 and 11 Flower 3 Poison 3 (1 non rift)
I will do more in the days to come. I can just switch parks when I am playing so not that difficult. Hope this helps a bit.
That is helpful, but can you also post the rift element of the poison dragons and mention the rift alignment during each day?
I've updated with some more results. With a very small sampling, it's looking like 3 percent with water/air involved, and a little higher without, but that could change as we get 100s of more results. It's also looking like cloning at least doubles the chance of getting a poison.
For those thinking it's hard to get some of the rare hybrids, it clearly is at a 2-5 percent type range. But if you do a large enough number of breeds, you'll certainly get it easily enough as we're seeing. What would be very interesting would be to move to something like Pepper+Pepper in a few weeks, and see how much cloning effects the Pepper results. If it jumps from 3 percent to 30 percent, it's pretty clear what the cloning chance is then.
Rift aligned to earth Level 89. Both poison fire trained. Dragon Count ------ ----- Poison 9 - 7 T / 2 not Flower 4 - 2 T / 2 not Smoulderbrush 0 Pepper 0
Rift aligned to cold Level 90. Both poison fire trained. Dragon Count ------ ----- Poison 8 - 6 T / 2 not Flower 3 - 3 T / 0 not Smoulderbrush 0 Pepper 1 - 0 T / 1 not
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I'll start my runs at the reset today.
I'll start my runs at the reset today.
