Harvest Moon + Harvest Moon in EBC both level 4 14 Harvest Moon (35%) 2 Reindeer (5%) 14 Golden Hybrid/Opposites (35%) 10 Regular Hybrids (25%)
Harvest Moon numbers are relatively the same. 5% Reindeer, which is closer to what’s expected. 10 times as many regular hybrids, and thus fewer golden hybrids snd opposites. Maybe there is the boost at the island, which is why the Ivy numbers were exaggerated there as well. I’m not near my computer so I don’t know what the actual numbers are, but I would think there is greater than 100% of set dragon chances. So the chance of getting a regular hybrid should be much lower than 25%.
For a total sum, I now have Thistle sitting at 13.59% (25 of 184) and HM at 33.75% (27 of 80). Embossed isn't at enough attempts to know more than it's in the 30s.
Now it's going to take a bunch of attempts to narrow it down to an exact number. Double parents will either default to 30% or 1/3 (33%), I doubt any other numbers would make sense. I've set it to 30, but we can update it to 1/3 if the numbers continue to point to that instead. Thistle is likely 15, with 5% breed chance and 10% clone, but again, we can update as we get more. Great info!
Post by Fletch_smf on Sept 3, 2022 20:08:47 GMT -6
The Chances of Breeding Twins
Just before the last Twin Weekend, Quil shared a conversation they were having with Axew on the Dragonvale Discord server, regarding the breeding of Twins. Axew had noticed that they rarely got Twins in the first few breeds after breeding one. This indicated to them that there was not just a set chance of Twins. Because a 10% chance of Twins, means there's a 10% chance of breeding Twins back to back. They collected data over nearly 1000 breeds, with 98 Twins, and plotted it in a graph. I reproduce it here with their permission.
Out of nearly 100 Twins, only 4 were received in the first 4 breeds (after receiving a Twin). Then a big jump on breed 5, and slowly diminishing, as you would expect. This seems to indicate that the chance of Twins is set small, maybe 1%, for the first 4 breeds, and then jumps up to a reasonable number, say 15%, from breeds 5 and onwards.
First Conclusions and Recommendations
Axew's suggestion, backed by the data, is to quickly breed through the first 4 breeds after receiving a Twin, before trying in earnest for the target dragon. There are 4 fails to get out of the way, before you have a decent chance to get a Twin, so best to get through them fast. This could be easily 4 x 10 hours in time you've saved yourself, or 40 gems. Even worse than that, you might breed the target dragon you are trying to Twin, but 99 times in 100 it will be a regular version.
The recommendation is to breed your PLANT dragon with another players, 4 times, before returning to the combination you need. In 30 seconds you can boost your chance of a Twin from 1% to 15%. In order to facilitate this, I have made a new park, that will always have a PLANT dragon shared. Befriend the account, and message me/reply here with your details, and there will always be a PLANT dragon in your friends list.
_Twins_#7878
Collecting Data
In the mean time, I have been doing my own testing, and my results show the same low chance of Twins in breeds 1 to 4. But we would love to hear from anyone else who is keeping track of their CBC breeding. Again, message me, or reply in this thread, and we'll add your figures. I am posting all stats to a Google doc, which you can see HERE.
Thanks again to Axew for starting the conversation, and Quil for sharing it with the staff. A more detailed version of the information in this post, can be read at my blog.
During this event (except for the twin dragons weekend) I never got any of the twins I was trying for. The interesting thing is that most of the time the dragon that I wanted as a twin was bred right after breeding a twin and of course even though it was the right timer I knew of would not be a twin. It did not seem random and it was very annoying!
During this event (except for the twin dragons weekend) I never got any of the twins I was trying for. The interesting thing is that most of the time the dragon that I wanted as a twin was bred right after breeding a twin and of course even though it was the right timer I knew of would not be a twin. It did not seem random and it was very annoying!
I don't think I even got a single special twin this event despite breeding daily (well, -9 days + 400 gems of speedthroughs). Sometimes they just don't favour you. I can't even remember getting a normal twin outside the twin weekend, but I wasn't keeping count since I sell them anyway
During this event (except for the twin dragons weekend) I never got any of the twins I was trying for. The interesting thing is that most of the time the dragon that I wanted as a twin was bred right after breeding a twin and of course even though it was the right timer I knew of would not be a twin. It did not seem random and it was very annoying!
Funnily enough, we’ve just been talking about how to improve the chances of breeding the Twin you are after.
I have not kept statistics but during this event I tried to get twins of all the zodiac dragons. Every time I got a twin it was not a zodiac but MOST times the first breed after the twin gave me a non twin version of the zodiac I was trying for. It was very frustrating, it almost seem deliberate! I ended up getting twins for four of the six zodiac dragons during twin weekend using a few hundred gems.
Every time I got a twin it was not a zodiac but MOST times the first breed after the twin gave me a non twin version of the zodiac I was trying for.
It seems that you are very unlikely to get a Twin on the first 4 breeds after breeding one. Breeding through 4 PLANT + PLANT breeds would allow you to get back to a decent chance. Best of luck in the future. And I am glad the Twin Weekend was so productive for you.
I once went 53 breeds without a twin and it was maddening. I thought my game was broken. It has been the only time in all these years that it took so long. I have went around 20 several times, but it doesn’t happen that often. It is usually more in the 5-10 range and sometimes around 15. I have done the plant trick for years after noticing a pattern, but never posted about it as I did not want the odds of getting twins to be changed.
I’ve never had 50+ breeds without a twin. It sounds like there may have been a couple updates that occurred in a short timeframe that perhaps caused the twin counter to reset.
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Just before the last Twin Weekend, Quil shared a conversation they were having with Axew on the Dragonvale Discord server, regarding the breeding of Twins. Axew had noticed that they rarely got Twins in the first few breeds after breeding one. This indicated to them that there was not just a set chance of Twins. Because a 10% chance of Twins, means there's a 10% chance of breeding Twins back to back. They collected data over nearly 1000 breeds, with 98 Twins, and plotted it in a graph. I reproduce it here with their permission.
Out of nearly 100 Twins, only 4 were received in the first 4 breeds (after receiving a Twin). Then a big jump on breed 5, and slowly diminishing, as you would expect. This seems to indicate that the chance of Twins is set small, maybe 1%, for the first 4 breeds, and then jumps up to a reasonable number, say 15%, from breeds 5 and onwards.First Conclusions and RecommendationsAxew's suggestion, backed by the data, is to quickly breed through the first 4 breeds after receiving a Twin, before trying in earnest for the target dragon. There are 4 fails to get out of the way, before you have a decent chance to get a Twin, so best to get through them fast. This could be easily 4 x 10 hours in time you've saved yourself, or 40 gems. Even worse than that, you might breed the target dragon you are trying to Twin, but 99 times in 100 it will be a regular version. The recommendation is to breed your PLANT dragon with another players, 4 times, before returning to the combination you need. In 30 seconds you can boost your chance of a Twin from 1% to 15%. In order to facilitate this, I have made a new park, that will always have a PLANT dragon shared. Befriend the account, and message me/reply here with your details, and there will always be a PLANT dragon in your friends list. _Twins_#7878 
Collecting DataIn the mean time, I have been doing my own testing, and my results show the same low chance of Twins in breeds 1 to 4. But we would love to hear from anyone else who is keeping track of their CBC breeding. Again, message me, or reply in this thread, and we'll add your figures. I am posting all stats to a Google doc, which you can see HERE.Thanks again to Axew for starting the conversation, and Quil for sharing it with the staff. A more detailed version of the information in this post, can be read at my blog.
