Oh my, first the wonderful drow returns with sandbox galore updates, then Kiwichris shocks us with a glorious appearance, then Arkynos joyously arrives and has us floored, then liza comes back with magnificent fanfare and cheer!
The stars are in line and everyone is coming home!
I managed to breed a gravity pedestal, but it was glitched, the egg is invisible, all I got was the pedestal itself…. sigh… it looks awkward!
Aaaanyway, thanks for always having the newest dragons in the co-op cave Adlerist, it makes my dragon life a little bit easier ❤️😃
Deca said they’re working in the Gravity pedestal. 🌟
Friend ID: adlerist#5274
Due to a potential limit on the number of friends a player can have before issues arise in the game, I will only be able to add Forum members. Thank you, for your understanding, and please consider joining us!
Still thinking about the DV breeding problems. The subject of RNGs keeps coming up and I wonder if this might be the root cause of the problem. There are many implementations of RNGs out there and some produce random numbers more reliably than others. RNGs sometimes “randomly” generate the same number several times in succession, or just get completely stuck, or reseeded when they shouldn’t be. It looks like there is a fair amount of traffic generated between the DV client and Deca’s server during breeding. Does anyone know if the random numbers are generated on the client side or the server or both? It may be that DV’s RNG mechanism - whatever it is - needs some review and updating. Just an idea.
Posts: 4,392
Platform: iPad Accepting New Gifts: Thanks friends; this game now a solid chore, no longer a delight sadly, so taking an indefinite break. Koala to all. Forum Name to Tag: kiwichris01
obijuan I think you may have misunderstood, I didn't maintain the game: I was forum staff, not Backflip staff. I mostly helped get event threads prepared before the event started.
If the breeding algorithm actually just cycled through the results in order of likelihood then you'd have gotten Tidal. As you said, you got at least one of everything with lower odds. If it was this way and actually exploitable then I'd expect at least a few YouTube videos titled $$$ DRAGONVALE EXPLOITS $$$ GUARANTEED RARE DRAGONS 🐲NOT CLICKBAIT!!! by now. The game's been out 10 years, how come nobody has found the exploit before? And told me so I can breed more event dragons? I'd like to stop getting untraited dragons on my only successful breeding attempt of the week, that's happened several times this year.
No, sorry, I still think plain old boring luck is to blame. And if there is an issue (and this isn't just apophenia and/or a statistically unlikely but memorable bit of sequencing) it is that you're breeding and selling faster than the game is fetching an updated RNG state from the server and that's causing pairs of breeds from the same seed. If it was meant to be 2/2/1 rather than 4/4/2 that brings the odds right back down to earth. I don't think this is the case, but if you do then maybe try slowing your breeds down a bit. Count to 10 or something. It literally can't hurt your odds.
Hi Luggage! Great to have your voice here again😊 and OMDragons, I did not know speed of hitting the rebreed button could be a ‘thing’.... tomorrow in the rift ima try slowoooooiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnngngngngngng down, I usually hot press my way through, same with gem speed ups.... Thankyou o mobile Sapient Pearwood 🙌🙌🙌
Last Edit: Aug 8, 2022 12:40:14 GMT -6 by Kiwichris
Still thinking about the DV breeding problems. The subject of RNGs keeps coming up and I wonder if this might be the root cause of the problem. There are many implementations of RNGs out there and some produce random numbers more reliably than others. RNGs sometimes “randomly” generate the same number several times in succession, or just get completely stuck, or reseeded when they shouldn’t be. It looks like there is a fair amount of traffic generated between the DV client and Deca’s server during breeding. Does anyone know if the random numbers are generated on the client side or the server or both? It may be that DV’s RNG mechanism - whatever it is - needs some review and updating. Just an idea.
You send them the breed combo, and the server sends back the results. It's all tracked on their end. That's why there's occasionally a long pause after you breed something, before you see that it's been confirmed.
I've not noticed anything wrong with their random number generator, I just don't think we fully understand all of their rules. From the testing that we've done on cloning dragons and such, and even breeding for some of the dragons, the numbers are pretty accurate and land exactly where I'd expect from just a sampling of data. One of the reasons I added the 'After 10 tries', 'After 50 tries' etc to the Compendium is to really get a good feel for how hard it is to get a dragon. Sometimes just seeing 3% or 1% is not enough. If I've tried for something 80 times and not gotten it, my first thought is that the RNG is just broken. But the odds may show that 1 or 2 players out of 10 won't have it after 80 attempts, and then it's just very likely I'm that player. When you get something on the first few attempts, your mind tends to move on quickly to the next task and you don't dwell long on how 'easy' it was for you.
What's really been breaking my spirit is getting constant non rift versions of dragons I need in the rift. I really want to understand what those odds are, cause it's not 25% per parent element, 25 rift element setting, and 25 no element as we first guessed.
Post by singleimage on Aug 8, 2022 16:54:59 GMT -6
obijuan - developers typically don’t have two sets of numbers for all their content to give one group an edge over the other without the player’s knowledge. It would be catastrophic for the game if this was discovered. And there’s no reason for a developer to do this because it wouldn’t necessarily increase their revenue. If they want to earn more money they can make an item more rare and lower the chances of getting it. It’s better to make it more rare for everyone so everyone will be tempted to spend money.
It’s also a goal for the developer to transition players into paying players. You don’t want to solely rely on the same people to support your game because if they leave that’s a loss. You’re actively trying to convert, and giving one group better odds means they’ll never transition.
The only time developers will regularly give an advantage to a group is for brand new players. They might make it a little easier for the new player to get an item or offer a special promotional package. This is to help retain the new player who might not have much of a chance if they’re playing against veteran players or to prevent them from feeling overwhelmed. But this small boost is over quickly after a couple days, or after the player goes up a couple levels, or as soon as the promotion has expired.
Since Adlerist, Arkynos, Fletch and Quil have all said another set of percentages isn’t in the data, then in all likelihood it doesn’t exist.
In regards to the RNG, I don’t see how the RNG could get stuck. I suppose you could do what Arkynos suggested and slow down or just do other actions after every breed, but I’m inclined to agree with Arkynos that it wouldn’t have any impact.
Unless you’re speed breeding with gems in the Vale, the stuck RNG theory wouldn’t apply, since each breed takes hours to complete. So if you’re not having success at the Cooperative, then it’s not an issue with the RNG getting stuck. Instead it’s a problem with the cloning odds being too low, which a lot of people have already suggested.
Hang in there, it does get better. I understand how you feel. It is really frustrating, but believe me, it’s frustrating for all of us.
Post by DragonMoonX on Aug 8, 2022 17:56:04 GMT -6
Thank you so much to the kind individual who shared their Omen in co-op. I'm not sure who that was, because when I went to collect my egg the person had switched out for a different dragon (long timer, don't remember who had Omen in co-op). Thanks to them, I now have Pisceian incubating in the nursery. I'm going to keep going and see if I can get the pedestal. I'll buy it if I have too. But getting this one dragon makes me so happy and means so much to me. 💙💙💙
Yes, adlerist , my mother liked hot cocoa. She got into the habit of having a cup of cocoa every night before bed. She said it helped her relax, though to be honest she loved all things chocolate. She also liked anything water related, like the ocean, the beach, rivers and rain. She was a true Pisces. Which is why I decorated that area with watery stuff. She loved daisies too, so you'll find a lot of them there. 💙💧🌧️🌼
Last Edit: Aug 8, 2022 18:00:05 GMT -6 by DragonMoonX
We share our physical lives with those in spirit. For life, like love, never dies. Love knows no limits, not even death.
Thank you so much to the kind individual who shared their Omen in co-op. I'm not sure who that was, because when I went to collect my egg the person had switched out for a different dragon (long timer, don't remember who had Omen in co-op). Thanks to them, I now have Pisceian incubating in the nursery. I'm going to keep going and see if I can get the pedestal. I'll buy it if I have too. But getting this one dragon makes me so happy and means so much to me. 💙💙💙
Yes, adlerist , my mother liked hot cocoa. She got into the habit of having a cup of cocoa every night before bed. She said it helped her relax, though to be honest she loved all things chocolate. She also liked anything water related, like the ocean, the beach, rivers and rain. She was a true Pisces. Which is why I decorated that area with watery stuff. She loved daisies too, so you'll find a lot of them there. 💙💧🌧️🌼
Congratulations! I’m so pleased you bred Pisceian! You might need to put a water or paradise habitat nearby so your Pisceian dragon can watch over. 💙💧💙
Friend ID: adlerist#5274
Due to a potential limit on the number of friends a player can have before issues arise in the game, I will only be able to add Forum members. Thank you, for your understanding, and please consider joining us!
In regards to the RNG, I don’t see how the RNG could get stuck. I suppose you could do what Arkynos suggested and slow down or just do other actions after every breed, but I’m inclined to agree with Arkynos that it wouldn’t have any impact.
I thought of this years ago, as I was tracking all my breeding results. So, I decided to test it to see if I could breed a wider variety of dragons by completing a couple breeds in the Rift, force closing the game, returning a couple hours later, completing a couple more breeds, etc, all day long. In the end, there was no significant difference between breeding 16 times in a row versus breeding in multiple sessions. I didn’t breed the desired dragon faster and didn’t end up with more diverse outcomes. But if players want conclusive results, many should test it out. I welcome others to give it a go.
Luck is luck. Bad luck is bad luck. Koala is koala.
Friend ID: adlerist#5274
Due to a potential limit on the number of friends a player can have before issues arise in the game, I will only be able to add Forum members. Thank you, for your understanding, and please consider joining us!
In regards to the RNG, I don’t see how the RNG could get stuck. I suppose you could do what Arkynos suggested and slow down or just do other actions after every breed, but I’m inclined to agree with Arkynos that it wouldn’t have any impact.
I thought of this years ago, as I was tracking all my breeding results. So, I decided to test it to see if I could breed a wider variety of dragons by completing a couple breeds in the Rift, force closing the game, returning a couple hours later, completing a couple more breeds, etc, all day long. In the end, there was no significant difference between breeding 16 times in a row versus breeding in multiple sessions. I didn’t breed the desired dragon faster and didn’t end up with more diverse outcomes. But if players want conclusive results, many should test it out. I welcome others to give it a go.
Luck is luck. Bad luck is bad luck. Koala is koala.
Ah well there you go. Yea I don’t think slowing down on the breeding button or collecting from habitats or closing the game between breeds will change anything. I don’t really see how it could unless there’s a bug and you kept getting the same dragon or something like that.
Still thinking about the DV breeding problems. The subject of RNGs keeps coming up and I wonder if this might be the root cause of the problem. There are many implementations of RNGs out there and some produce random numbers more reliably than others. RNGs sometimes “randomly” generate the same number several times in succession, or just get completely stuck, or reseeded when they shouldn’t be. It looks like there is a fair amount of traffic generated between the DV client and Deca’s server during breeding. Does anyone know if the random numbers are generated on the client side or the server or both? It may be that DV’s RNG mechanism - whatever it is - needs some review and updating. Just an idea.
You send them the breed combo, and the server sends back the results. It's all tracked on their end. That's why there's occasionally a long pause after you breed something, before you see that it's been confirmed.
I've not noticed anything wrong with their random number generator, I just don't think we fully understand all of their rules. From the testing that we've done on cloning dragons and such, and even breeding for some of the dragons, the numbers are pretty accurate and land exactly where I'd expect from just a sampling of data. One of the reasons I added the 'After 10 tries', 'After 50 tries' etc to the Compendium is to really get a good feel for how hard it is to get a dragon. Sometimes just seeing 3% or 1% is not enough. If I've tried for something 80 times and not gotten it, my first thought is that the RNG is just broken. But the odds may show that 1 or 2 players out of 10 won't have it after 80 attempts, and then it's just very likely I'm that player. When you get something on the first few attempts, your mind tends to move on quickly to the next task and you don't dwell long on how 'easy' it was for you.
What's really been breaking my spirit is getting constant non rift versions of dragons I need in the rift. I really want to understand what those odds are, cause it's not 25% per parent element, 25 rift element setting, and 25 no element as we first guessed.
DV has always been a trade off between frustration and reward. Right now frustration is winning out because of the dysfunctional breeding, especially in the Rift. Today, I bred a normal Omen in the Rift. I need the traited version. Last event, after four weeks and many dozens of attempts, I got a normal Tidal, long after a traited version would have been of any use. I already have two normal Tidal dragons in my Vale park that I bred shortly after I began playing the game. It did not take anything like four weeks to breed either one. If it had, I would not be playing the game today.
My Rift has lost any pretense of utility in my game. I might eventually be able to breed a traited dragon that I need, but it is not worth the cost in time, Etherium, or aggravation. The early traited hybrids came very easily as well as more elusive dragons like the Rainbows. Now it has become next to impossible to breed anything I need.
The Rift has suffered the same fate as Eggy Hatchy: at first, fun and easy to get what you need, then reprogrammed to make everything a tough slog that is totally not fun. It is driving me out of the game.
obijuan - developers typically don’t have two sets of numbers for all their content to give one group an edge over the other without the player’s knowledge. It would be catastrophic for the game if this was discovered. And there’s no reason for a developer to do this because it wouldn’t necessarily increase their revenue. If they want to earn more money they can make an item more rare and lower the chances of getting it. It’s better to make it more rare for everyone so everyone will be tempted to spend money.
It’s also a goal for the developer to transition players into paying players. You don’t want to solely rely on the same people to support your game because if they leave that’s a loss. You’re actively trying to convert, and giving one group better odds means they’ll never transition.
The only time developers will regularly give an advantage to a group is for brand new players. They might make it a little easier for the new player to get an item or offer a special promotional package. This is to help retain the new player who might not have much of a chance if they’re playing against veteran players or to prevent them from feeling overwhelmed. But this small boost is over quickly after a couple days, or after the player goes up a couple levels, or as soon as the promotion has expired.
Since Adlerist, Arkynos, Fletch and Quil have all said another set of percentages isn’t in the data, then in all likelihood it doesn’t exist.
In regards to the RNG, I don’t see how the RNG could get stuck. I suppose you could do what Arkynos suggested and slow down or just do other actions after every breed, but I’m inclined to agree with Arkynos that it wouldn’t have any impact.
Unless you’re speed breeding with gems in the Vale, the stuck RNG theory wouldn’t apply, since each breed takes hours to complete. So if you’re not having success at the Cooperative, then it’s not an issue with the RNG getting stuck. Instead it’s a problem with the cloning odds being too low, which a lot of people have already suggested.
Hang in there, it does get better. I understand how you feel. It is really frustrating, but believe me, it’s frustrating for all of us.
RNGs can get stuck in several ways depending on the implementation. One way is using an RNG that is not thread safe in a multi-threaded application. Another way is forgetting to seed the generator. Presumably the developers at Deca (and Backflip before them) are/were competent enough to not fall into the traps - though sometimes I have to wonder, given the results of my Rift breeds.
I should NOT have posted the conspiracy theory. I hate conspiracy theories, QAnon, the whole bit. I am very frustrated playing DV after all the years spent acquiring all the dragons, decos, and pedestals (minus one). DV is not anywhere near as much fun as it used to be. See my reply to Quil’s post.
RNGs sometimes “randomly” generate the same number several times in succession,
An RNG should absolutely be able to generate the same number several times in succession. That is part of what random means. It's actually part of the way you can tell it is random. If that never happened, then you could cry "tampering".
You need to track breeds, and post results. We have threads here we track the numbers to keep an eye on the results. Make use of one of them, and put the actual numbers there. Then we can talk about the evidence. Until then, all you have is heresay.
RNGs sometimes “randomly” generate the same number several times in succession,
An RNG should absolutely be able to generate the same number several times in succession. That is part of what random means. It's actually part of the way you can tell it is random. If that never happened, then you could cry "tampering".
You need to track breeds, and post results. We have threads here we track the numbers to keep an eye on the results. Make use of one of them, and put the actual numbers there. Then we can talk about the evidence. Until then, all you have is heresay.
Of course it’s hearsay. Most of the posts on this forum are hearsay. But we still live in an analog world, not a digital world. Much of it can be characterized by numbers, but not touch, feel, and emotion. How many untraited dragons could be bred in the Rift when it was first introduced to the game compared to now? How does that feel? How many final moves in the mini-games now come down to chance compared to when they were first introduced? How does that feel? How many back-to-back events do we have now compared to the earlier BFS years? How does that feel?
Deca has brought many good things to the Vale. They have also fine-tuned quite a lot of the heart and soul out of the game. That’s a feel thing, not a numbers thing. I’m complaining about it and maybe shouldn’t be.
I am a big fan of The Rift and often get new dragons there before I can generate them in the regular park. But I’ve really struggled to get traited Midnight, Dusk, and Midday during this event. Today I received 8 traited Hail dragons in a row, then I finally got the MIDDAY I’ve been hoping to get for days! Yea! Now i have all 3 of these elusive wyrms. ✨🐉🐉🐉✨ This game can be frustrating, but it continues to be engaging and fun. I am confident the game is honest and fair. Without the challenges and fails, it would be too easy. If you truly love koalas, you have to love the bitey ones as much as the sweet ones. 💫🐨💫
DV has always been a trade off between frustration and reward. Right now frustration is winning out because of the dysfunctional breeding, especially in the Rift. Today, I bred a normal Omen in the Rift. I need the traited version. Last event, after four weeks and many dozens of attempts, I got a normal Tidal, long after a traited version would have been of any use. I already have two normal Tidal dragons in my Vale park that I bred shortly after I began playing the game. It did not take anything like four weeks to breed either one. If it had, I would not be playing the game today.
My Rift has lost any pretense of utility in my game. I might eventually be able to breed a traited dragon that I need, but it is not worth the cost in time, Etherium, or aggravation. The early traited hybrids came very easily as well as more elusive dragons like the Rainbows. Now it has become next to impossible to breed anything I need.
The Rift has suffered the same fate as Eggy Hatchy: at first, fun and easy to get what you need, then reprogrammed to make everything a tough slog that is totally not fun. It is driving me out of the game.
I feel for you here, I spent the majority of last event trying to breed a Tidal in the rift. I got 3 in the end, and all 3 were untraited. I felt like I wasted a massive amount of time and energy. And since I didn't have a Tidal twin either, I couldn't pick a rift one on the final day of the reward calendar.
I then spent the first week and a half of this event trying to get Omen. Got one non rift version early. Based on what I've seen happen to me in multiple events, and watching my wife get similar results with the same dragons and hearing from other players, I believe there's something in play with the rift that reduces the odds of a rare/epic dragon from having rift traits if you don't already have the dragon in the rift. It could be terrible luck, but certainly doesn't feel like coincidence at this point. And if that's being done, all it can do is truly frustrate players. I hope I am wrong.
I finally got a traited Omen yesterday, so 1 in 5. And this has been a common problem for me going back for a year or more, unfortunately I didn't track the results.
The issue is the odds for these dragons. There were some difficult to get dragons in the early days, for example the gemstones. They came out with a new one each month, and you had that one month to get them. It was very common for me to pick one up finally on the last days of each month, fearing I would finally miss my first dragon. I think I got an Ovalith on the last day it was available, and it had been out for a longer time than usual. Most of the gemstones were 3%, while Ovalith was 1%, but I didn't know that at the time.
Now so many of the new dragons are in that 3% range, such as Omen. And with larger result sets than we used to have, it often drops your chances below the base value. But we are getting more breeds per day with the rift, than we did pre-rift, and maybe that's why so many dragons have low numbers. For example, there's an 80+% chance of getting Omen after a week of rift breeds, and I certainly hit that after a week, but when it shows up without rift traits it feels like a fail. When only 1 in 5 has a rift trait, as I was seeing, then it takes away the bonus of having the rift. If you can never get the parent dragons there to breed new stuff, you lose the advantage of the rift that likely caused the developers to lower the odds for the dragon and it really hurts in the end.
obijuan - developers typically don’t have two sets of numbers for all their content to give one group an edge over the other without the player’s knowledge. It would be catastrophic for the game if this was discovered. And there’s no reason for a developer to do this because it wouldn’t necessarily increase their revenue. If they want to earn more money they can make an item more rare and lower the chances of getting it. It’s better to make it more rare for everyone so everyone will be tempted to spend money.
It’s also a goal for the developer to transition players into paying players. You don’t want to solely rely on the same people to support your game because if they leave that’s a loss. You’re actively trying to convert, and giving one group better odds means they’ll never transition.
The only time developers will regularly give an advantage to a group is for brand new players. They might make it a little easier for the new player to get an item or offer a special promotional package. This is to help retain the new player who might not have much of a chance if they’re playing against veteran players or to prevent them from feeling overwhelmed. But this small boost is over quickly after a couple days, or after the player goes up a couple levels, or as soon as the promotion has expired.
Since Adlerist, Arkynos, Fletch and Quil have all said another set of percentages isn’t in the data, then in all likelihood it doesn’t exist.
In regards to the RNG, I don’t see how the RNG could get stuck. I suppose you could do what Arkynos suggested and slow down or just do other actions after every breed, but I’m inclined to agree with Arkynos that it wouldn’t have any impact.
Unless you’re speed breeding with gems in the Vale, the stuck RNG theory wouldn’t apply, since each breed takes hours to complete. So if you’re not having success at the Cooperative, then it’s not an issue with the RNG getting stuck. Instead it’s a problem with the cloning odds being too low, which a lot of people have already suggested.
Hang in there, it does get better. I understand how you feel. It is really frustrating, but believe me, it’s frustrating for all of us.
RNGs can get stuck in several ways depending on the implementation. One way is using an RNG that is not thread safe in a multi-threaded application. Another way is forgetting to seed the generator. Presumably the developers at Deca (and Backflip before them) are/were competent enough to not fall into the traps - though sometimes I have to wonder, given the results of my Rift breeds.
I should NOT have posted the conspiracy theory. I hate conspiracy theories, QAnon, the whole bit. I am very frustrated playing DV after all the years spent acquiring all the dragons, decos, and pedestals (minus one). DV is not anywhere near as much fun as it used to be. See my reply to Quil’s post.
That’s a different situation. If that were the case then everyone would be having problems and more players would’ve noticed. The Rift has been around for 5 years. By now this would’ve been spotted. Unless you’re suggesting DECA recently change it?? But I don’t see a difference in the Rift between the BFS years and the DECA years. Also players use it every day, they would notice a sudden change that resulted in abnormal odds. I haven’t heard any complaints about this on Reddit or Discord.
I’m not sure if you changed your stance or I misunderstood what you wrote. I thought the issue was with the cloning percentages and the breeding percentages for the entire game. Now it seems the problem is with the Rift’s breeding percentages and the Vale is okay and cloning is okay too. Sorry if I misunderstood.
If the problem is just with the Rift and you think the Rift has worse breeding percentages than the Vale, then look at your Rift and Vale breeds. If you breed 12 times in the Rift in a day, compare that with 12 breeds at the Enchanted Breeding Cave (which will take a lot longer than a day of course, unless you speed up the breeds). After a while, with enough breeds in both locations, that will give you a good idea if there’s any difference in Rift breeding. Just be sure the parent dragons are all the same level, and use the Enchanted Cave since it doesn’t have a boost.
I hope you’re able to bred the dragons you need in the Rift and things start to look better. Wishing you many koalas!
An RNG should absolutely be able to generate the same number several times in succession. That is part of what random means. It's actually part of the way you can tell it is random. If that never happened, then you could cry "tampering".
You need to track breeds, and post results. We have threads here we track the numbers to keep an eye on the results. Make use of one of them, and put the actual numbers there. Then we can talk about the evidence. Until then, all you have is heresay.
Of course it’s hearsay. Most of the posts on this forum are hearsay. But we still live in an analog world, not a digital world. Much of it can be characterized by numbers, but not touch, feel, and emotion. How many untraited dragons could be bred in the Rift when it was first introduced to the game compared to now? How does that feel? How many final moves in the mini-games now come down to chance compared to when they were first introduced? How does that feel? How many back-to-back events do we have now compared to the earlier BFS years? How does that feel?
Deca has brought many good things to the Vale. They have also fine-tuned quite a lot of the heart and soul out of the game. That’s a feel thing, not a numbers thing. I’m complaining about it and maybe shouldn’t be.
My two whatevers.
I believe Adlerist tracked all her breeding results in the Rift and Vale for the last 5-10 years and probably has the data to show if dragons without traits are showing more frequently than years ago.
The problem here is that assumptions are being made that the Rift breeding odds were lowered, the frequency of no traits was raised, and the mini-game odds were lowered. As you said earlier, we don’t want to get too close to conspiracy theories. I’ve seen players take theories they read from one site and spread them around to others, then eventually everyone thinks it’s a fact even tho there’s no proof and no one bothered to test it.
I have a question (actually, some questions) for the statistics/odds/game mechanics people: I understand that as we get more and more dragons, and thus more possible outcomes for a breed, the odds of getting any particular one fall below what they originally were. If you have two dragons and equal chance for each, they are each 50%, then you introduce a new dragon with 20% chance, does that mean the original dragons become 40% each, or are the three 41.7%, 41.7%, 16.7%? Either way, if a low-odds dragon is introduced, it wouldn't affect the odds of the older dragons too much, but introducing a higher-odds dragon has more effect, and it would be cumulative (I'm too lazy to calculate the odds of sequentially introducing 10 dragons with 2% odds to see how it compares to one 20% dragon, especially since I don't know the answer to my first question), so there is a continuous "erosion" of the odds as new ones are introduced into the game. So at this point, with so many dragons, is it even possible to introduce higher-odds dragons without upsetting the balance of the other dragons? Or is that why it's harder to breed previously-released dragons? With more dragons added later as possible results, will dragons become harder to breed as they become older, so the time of their release is the easiest they will ever be?
I have a question (actually, some questions) for the statistics/odds/game mechanics people: I understand that as we get more and more dragons, and thus more possible outcomes for a breed, the odds of getting any particular one fall below what they originally were. If you have two dragons and equal chance for each, they are each 50%, then you introduce a new dragon with 20% chance, does that mean the original dragons become 40% each, or are the three 41.7%, 41.7%, 16.7%? Either way, if a low-odds dragon is introduced, it wouldn't affect the odds of the older dragons too much, but introducing a higher-odds dragon has more effect, and it would be cumulative (I'm too lazy to calculate the odds of sequentially introducing 10 dragons with 2% odds to see how it compares to one 20% dragon, especially since I don't know the answer to my first question), so there is a continuous "erosion" of the odds as new ones are introduced into the game. So at this point, with so many dragons, is it even possible to introduce higher-odds dragons without upsetting the balance of the other dragons? Or is that why it's harder to breed previously-released dragons? With more dragons added later as possible results, will dragons become harder to breed as they become older, so the time of their release is the easiest they will ever be?
adlerist has mentioned this a couple times before and I believe during the last event when the topic came up. Since it’ll take me a while to find the post, I’ll try to repeat it here.
For a new dragon to really affect the breeding odds, the dragon needs to be permanent, so it’s available constantly. All the Pirate dragons from the last event can’t be fails in this event because they’re limiteds and not available now. The only permanent dragons DECA has added that could be fails during any event are the golden hybrids they added a while ago and Triple Rainbow.
Since the events repeat themselves and dragons come back a year later, some of the returning dragons could add to the fails while breeding during the event. But since DECA is using a lot of locked breeding combos, that lessens the impact even more, because dragons with locked combos can’t be fails unless you’re using the breeding hint.
Basically, DECA can add 500 dragons, and if they’re all limiteds and unavailable now, it won’t affect the breeding odds for any of the dragons in this event.
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